Friday, July 16, 2010

BVF Watch

Biovail Corp. (BVF), an Ontario-based pharmaceutical house specializing in central nervous system disorders, has been jump to the upside the past few days, amid ebullient talk from analysts and with earnings set for Aug. 5 before the open.
Today's move sets a new high in the uptrend that began in October 2008, although that trend must now be counted as a retracement within a larger downtrend that began in 2001.

But let's focus on the happy.

Person's Proprietary Signal and the parabolic sar both flipped to bull mode yexterday, and the macd has again risen across the zero-line after one day below it.

 Only the fast stochastic is sounding a note of caution: It is above the 80-line -- barely -- and declining. When it crosses below 80 into the neutral zone, that will constitute a bear signal.

The price rises yesterday and today, on a volume spike, covered 7.6% low to high.

BVF tends to move in quantum leaps rather than slow and steady. Not surprising, actually. The life of a pharmaceutical company consists of long years of research, and then a payoff when FDA approves a drug.

This is a slot-machine plays, of the sort that would do Vegas proud. When we play BVF, we're hoping for a jackpot.

Closest near-term support is the 20-day simple moving average, and the swing high, from which the price has retreated, is the closest resistance.

Reversal Levels
  • $20.63, +2.5% (swing high)
  • $20.12 <== You are here.
  • $18.83, -6.4% (20-day ma)
  • $18.79, -6.6%
  • $18.07, -10.2%

The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we reemerge from the wreckage.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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