Friday, November 29, 2013

Friday's Outcomes: AAPL

I analyzed AAPL for a bull play but deferred any trade until Monday at the earliest. See my analysis, "Hey, AAPL, go bump your head!".

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Hey, AAPL, go bump your head!

Update 12/18/2013: As the title of this analysis suggested, AAPL bumped its head, sooner rather than later.

AAPL's wave A to the upside, a correction within a second wave in the decline from its peak of $705.07 on Sept. 21, 2012, ended Dec. 5, 2013 at $575.14, marking the start of wave B to the downside under my Elliott wave analysis. 

The price fell below the 10-day price channel today, sending a signal, and I've closed the position based on my assessment of the chart.

Wave B at this degree can be expected to produce a significant decline.

The higher degree wave 2 {+1}, which contains the present wave B, began April 19 from $385.10. If wave B is proportional, it could well take eight months to complete. However, there is no rule that requires proportionality. (See the left-hand chart in the Dec. 3 update, below.)

Under the Elliott wave rules, wave B can be expected to show a three wave structure at one degree lower and can't move below the start of the preceding wave A, $385.10. It need not go down that far, it just can go no further. If the price falls below that level, then my count was wrong and will require reassessment.

AAPL's share price declined by 3.2% over the 15-day life of the position, or down by 77.9% annualized.

The options spreads had a negative yield on risk of 11.2%, or 272.6% annualized.

Update 12/3/2013; I've opened bull position in AAPL. The stock sent a bull signal last week but lost momentum. It regained its upward course today, again break free of the price channel.

Also, the prior chart had a degree of ambiguity: Is the present rise a third wave, wave 3 {-2} or wave 5 {-2} in the chart below? 

Monday's peak and decline followed by today's higher high resolves the question in my mind. I've labeled the new chart accordingly.


AAPL 2 years daily bars (left), 5 days 10-minute bars (right)

I structured the trade as a bull put options spread, sold for credit and expiring Jan. 17. The short puts have a 52% chance of expiring out of the money, so in terms of options modeling, the position is an even bet.

I was willing to reduce the odds in exchange for a higher yield because the January expiration date is relatively distant; there's time for random jitterbugging to right itself before the position ends.

The position has 3:1 leverage with a maximum potential yield on risk at expiration of 30.4%. There's a 1.6% hedge of profitability at expiration beneath the entry price.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) broke above its 20-day price channel on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving.

The appropriateness of analyzing the maker of iPhones and iPads and so many other goodies on America's premier shopping day, Black Friday, was so great, that when the bull signal was confirmed, I immediately tossed out my other prospects and resolved that this would be an AAPLish day.

Not that I'll be trading. The markets close early at 2 p.m. New York time, and volume will be low, as many traders take the day off. Days like this tend to be quirky, as though the interns were in charge, sailing pizza pans down the aisles as make-shift frisbees and placing trades between throws.

I'll also take a look over the weekend at the other signals for the day and if any seem worth the exercise, shall file an analysis. (See "Friday's Prospects".)

As has been endlessly reported, AAPL peaked on Sept. 21, 2012 at $705.07 and has not seen that level since. By my long term Elliott wave count, that peak ended an uptrend that began at $3.19 on July 10, 1997.

AAPL 20 years monthly bars (left), 2 years daily bars (right)
In talking about AAPL, it is important to keep the perspective straight. The uptrend lasted 15 years and two months, and in its lifespan had a net rise of 22,002.51% (left chart). A trend of that magnitude takes a long time to unravel, and indeed, a long time to successfully apply the brakes.

It is very well possible that the 15-year wave V to the upside is still completing its course.

Or not.

Since the peak, AAPL, has fallen in the Elliott wave manner of a dominant trend. That's a long way of saying that AAPL was in a downtrend for eight months ending last June and declining by 44.8%.

I think this chart makes a good case that wave I of the new downtrend is fact complete, and in record time. It has covered 50% of the rise from 2009, and about 40% of the rise from 1997. I tried hard to count it as waves of still lower magnitude because the decline has taken less than a year, whereas the final wave up in the prior uptrend took nearly four years. I'm seeking balance, but the markets are under no obligation to provide it.

If my count is complete, then AAPL's future looks looks like this: The present uptrend, wave A of II, continues to rise, but stops short of $705.07. It has already retraced 50% of the decline from June. The next stopping place, a common retracement level, is 61.8%, at $582.84. That provides 4.5% of headroom, not awful but not great, either.

If the pattern is a rising zig-zag scenario, then wave A will be followed by wave B to the downside, which will stop short of $388.87, and B in turn will be followed by a wave C rise that will make everyone jump up and throw confetti to celebrate the presumed start of an explosive rise in AAPL. The Elliott wave count suggests that they'll be seriously disappointed.

If it is a flat, then wave A will approach closer to $705.07 and will trace out a series of waves with roughly equivalent tops and bottoms -- a sideways trend -- to be followed, as above, by a wave B decline below the sideways trend's floor, and then a wave C rise.

Of course, if I've entered a bull position, I'll be cheering for the flat scenario. I'll want AAPL to jump up and bump its head smartly against the $705.07 ceiling, thank you very much. That would give 27% headroom, a very nice gain indeed.

So there is room to profit from AAPL, from the small to the awesomely large, within this scenario, despite my conclusion that the dominant long-term trend is down.

In my experience, second waves tend to come in as zig-zags more often than not, so I think the lower ceiling and smaller profit are more likely. But the markets never lose their capacity to surprise.

The decline, under the Elliott wave scenario, resumes from the end of wave C, as a third-wave decline to new lows.

Elliott wave counts are notoriously subjective, because it is impossible for the analyst to know for certain which magnitude a wave belongs to. Truly, there are no markers. With Elliott, as with any analytical tool, a trader trusts the results until they the model breaks, and then goes back and analyzes again with new data.

If the present wave A uptrend breaks above $705.07, that would break the model and the whole scenario that I've constructed above would collapse into ruins.

Brokerages have high hopes for Apple's prospects, collectively coming down with a 57% enthusiasm rating.

The company reports return on equity of 29% -- excellent by any standards -- and with low debt amounting to 14% of equity.

Apple's earnings peak in the quarter covering  the winter holiday shopping season, The 2012 season beat that of 2011, which in turn beat 2010's. The interim quarters in 2013 have been below their year-ago counterpart's, and analysts will be watching closely to see whether the Black Friday and subsequent weekend shopping will turn that around.

Institutions own 56% of shares, which are priced at a premium to sales. It takes $2.87 in shares to control a dollar in sales.

AAPL on average trades 9.5 million shares a day and supports and awesome selection of option strike prices, with open interest near the money running to four and five figures. The front-month at-the-money bid/ask spread on calls is narrow, at 1.1%.

Implied volatility stands at 24%, which is in the 53rd percentile of the one-month range, a neutral level. It began rising from a 21% interim low on Nov. 27.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.2% of trades will fall between $517.83 and $596.17 over the next month, for a potential gain or loss of 7%, and between $538.18 and $575.82 over the next week.

Contracts are trading heavily today, with calls running at four times their five-day average volume and puts at three times average.

Apple next publishes earnings on Jan. 23. The stock goes ex-dividend in February for a quarterly payout yielding 2.19% at today's prices.

Decision for my account: I'm not trading today because it is the day after a holiday. I'll add AAPL to the Watchlist and give it another look on Monday. In general, I see it as a reasonable bull play. Under Elliott wave doctrine, there's room to the upside for wave II.

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia

By preference I place my trades in the last half hour before the closing bell in New York. See my essay "When is the best time to trade" for a discussion of the practice.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Friday's Prospects

On Wednesday, Nov. 27:

Of 2,373 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 66 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 45 to the upside and 21 to the downside.

Thirteen symbols traded over the counter broke out, 10 to the upside and three to the downside.

Twenty-three symbols traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, 20 having broken out to the upside and three to the downside. The upside breakouts are AAPL, BBVA, BGS, BRC, CCC, CHL, CVC, GPK, GT, HLS, LAD, ORB, OSIS, PBF, PCP, ROK, USTR, VOLC, WAFD and  WOR. The downside breakouts are INXN, PBR and PBR.A.

Three symbols traded over the counter survived initial screening, all having broken out to the upside. They are DPSGY, HUWHY and TCEHY.

I shall do further analysis on Friday, Nov. 29.

Methodology

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • an average yield of 3% or greater when adjusted for the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the uptrend from October 2011 on the S&P 500 chart began to falter, on May 22, 2013, calculated as average yield multiplied by the odds,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Wednesday's Outcomes: TWTR

I analyzed TWTR but made no trade. At 15 trading days old, TWTR has far too little history for me to be comfortable opening a position. See my analysis, "TWTR: A chart talk".

The U.S. markets are closed on Thursday and I won't be posting.

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

TWTR: A chart talk

The U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Barring war, riot or natural disaster, trading volume will be down today and down even further on Friday.

The rest of the week isn't a good time to trade, with so many market participants home for the holiday.

So, today is for fun.

Twitter Inc. (TWTR) is in its 15th trading day since going public on Nov. 7. Initial public offerings, in their earliest months of trading, are curious beasts.

Most, in my experience, tend to slide. After all, buying interest is concentrated on the opening day and trails off thereafter.

TWTR doesn't disappoint in that negative view. It opened at $45.10 on Nov. 7 and opened today at $40.47, down 10.3%.

TWTR 15 days daily candlesticks (left), 15 days 15-minute bars (right)

Moreover, IPOs typically have a lock up period, where employees and company officers and owners are forbidden from selling their shares. When those shares eventually hit the market, the event increases supply, which typically depresses prices. There is, even now, a natural anticipation on the part of traders of downward pressure to come.

USA Today's Mark Krantz reports that some Twitter employees will be allowed to sell shares on Feb. 15 to cover taxes. That will bring 9.9 million shares onto the market. But big shareholderss -- executives, directors, owners -- will be required to wait until May 6 before cashing in a portion of their new-found wealth.

Given that fact, I never trade a new stock until the lockup period is over, and generally prefer to wait until six months after the lock up ends in order to see how the price behaves in a free market. I don't expect to be trading Twitter prior to November 2014.

In five more trading days TWTR will establish its 20-day price channel, which I use as an initial indicator to tell me what stocks are on the move and warrant further analysis. TWTR's channel boundaries are presently at $50.09 and $38.80. If the price stays within those bounds over the next five trading days, then those will be the 20-day breakout levels that will produce a bull or bear signal if traversed.

The Elliott wave count is like walking into a movie an hour after it has started. By my count, TWTR has opened in a downtrend correction.

At the highest magnitude, it can be analyzed as either a three-wave downward correction -- A-B-C -- within an uptrend, or as the first three waves of a five-wave downtrend.

I counted it as I did because wave B comes in three distinct sub-waves of lower magnitude. If the alternate count, wave 2, were correct, then it would divide into a five-wave pattern, three waves up separated by two downside corrections.

If my preferred count is correct, then it is too soon to interpret what is happening with the rise off of the $38.80 low of Nov. 25. If the alternate count is correct, then the present rise is a wave 4 correction to the upside within a downtrend of higher magnitude.

I often remark on the fractal nature of the market's price movements. TWTR will eventually resolve its path into a trend of far higher magnitude than what we can see today. But given my experience over the decades with Elliott wave counting, I would expect the higher magnitude movements to mirror the patterns of the micro-trends on this chart.

Of the 16 symbols that survived my initial screening overnight, none on a second look made the grade for analysis. (See "Wednesday's Prospects").

Three failed confirmation: YNDX, RGLD and COLM

Two were too illiquid for my taste: PEUGY and ZONMY.

One had sent a bull signal but was rated bearish by Zacks: AXE.

The rest had charts that, without doing detailed analysis, either were trending contrary to the price-channel breakout signal or appeared to be nearing the end of their trend.

So I turned to Twitter, the San Francisco, California company that, along with Facebook, has come to dominate the global social media market since it was founded in 2006.

Its statistics are phenomenal:
  • Active users per month: More than 230 million
  • Tweets per day: 500 million
  • Accounts outside the U.S.: 77%
Analysts, unimpressed by the big numbers, in aggregate come down with a negative 60% enthusiasm rating about Twitter's prospects. One concern, common to all information services in the Age of Tiny Screens, is where do you put the ads so you can monetize the business.

Twitter is so new as a public company that the financials are yet available.

TWTR on average trades 9.3 million shares a day and supports a wide selection of option strike prices, with open interest near the money running mainly to four figures. The front-month at-the-money bid/ask spread on puts (since the price is in a downtrend) is 2.1% and a bit higher on calls.

Implied volatity stands at its low point, 46%, having fallen from its initial 55% level.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.2% of trades will fall between $35.66 and $46.46 over the next month, for a potential gain or loss of 13.2%, and between $38.47 and $43.65 over the next week.

Contracts are skewing toward the put side, which are running at 38% above their five-day average volume. Calls are at 92% of average.

Decision for my account: As noted above, my rules discourage trading a stock until six-months after the end of its IPO lockup. I may find profit in TWTR down the road, but not yet.


References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

By preference I place my trades in the last half hour before the closing bell in New York. See my essay "When is the best time to trade" for a discussion of the practice.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Wednesday's Prospects

On Tuesday, Nov. 26:

Of 2,373 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 70 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 43 to the upside and 27 to the downside.

Eight symbols traded over the counter broke out, six to the upside and two to the downside.

Thirteen symbols traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, nine having broken out to the upside and four to the downside. The upside breakouts are AXE, BDC, COLM, CZR, DORM, HGR, TPC, UHS and YNDX. The downside breakouts are NU, OGE, RGLD and TEG.

Three symbols traded over the counter survived initial screening, all having broken out to the upside. They are BNPQY, PEUGY and ZONMY.

I shall do further analysis on Wednesday, Nov. 27.

Methodology

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • an average yield of 3% or greater when adjusted for the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the uptrend from October 2011 on the S&P 500 chart began to falter, on May 22, 2013, calculated as average yield multiplied by the odds,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Tuesday's Outcomes: INTC

INTC began trending downward with 20 minutes left to trade, and I opened a bear position. See my analysis, "INTC moves to downtrend", which has been updated with details.

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

INTC Analysis: Chart added

I've updated my post on INTC with the chart. See "INTC moves to a downtrend".

INTC moves to a downtrend

3/20/2014: I've closed my bear position in INTC, the fourth in a roll series that began in November 2013. This final position produced a lost, as did the overall series. I don't intend to roll INTC forward into a new bear position.

I opened my most recent position in INTC on March 4. The price continued to meander between the 10-day price channel boundaries until March 19, when it shot above the 20-day price channel and continued to trade higher the day after.

My most recent Elliott wave count shows INTC in a second wave correction to the upside. Under the Elliott rules, it should not exceed $27.12.

The combined series results: Shares rose 3.3% over the 21 days I held the positions, or 58.6% annualized. My options positions produced a negative 26.8% yield on risk, or -475.8% annualized.

Click on chart to enlarge.
INTC 3 years 3-day bars

3/4/2014: I've opened a bear position in INTC, structuring it as a bear put options spread, bought for a debit and expiring in June. 

I count INTC as having seen its wave B {+1} peak at $29.98 on Jan. 15 and as presently being at the start of wave C down within wave C {+1}, also to the downside.

Click on chart to enlarge.
INTC 60 days hourly bars



Update 1/28/2014: I've opened a bear position in INTC, structuring it as short synthetic futures expiring May 16.

Update 1/28/2014: INTC has broken below its 20-day price channel. My most recent position was closed on Jan. 13, prior to options expiration.

I've reanalyzed the chart with an eye toward rolling forward yet again and shall also take a look at volatility to guide how I structure the trade.

My chart analysis shows that INTC has resumed its downward course and so is a good candidate for a fresh bear position.

The Chart

INTC by my Elliott wave count is in wave B {+2} to the downside, the third leg of a correction from the 2009 Great Recession low of $12.05. One degree up, INTC is in wave 2 {+3} of a downtrend from its Tech Bubble peak in 2000 of  $75.83. Second waves break into three subwaves, which is happening on the INTC chart.

Click on chart to enlarge.
INTC 5 years 3-day bars (left), 180 days 4-hour bars (right)
The first wave of the upside correction, A {+2} peaked in April 2012 at $29.27. The second wave, B {+2}, began from that point.

Within B {+2}, I find wave A {+1} to the downside ended at $19.42 in November 2012, and B {+1} ended at $26.98 on Jan. 14, 2014 -- this month. 

If INTC reverses and moves above $26.98, that will mean that my count is wrong and wave B {+1} is still underway.

If the downtrend continues, then my count is correct and INTC is in wave C {+1} to the downside of wave B {+2} to the downside wave wave 2 {+3} to the upside.

I put the beginning of wave 2 {+3} at $12.05 on Feb. 23, 2009. Under the Elliott rules, the B {+2} and its wave C {+2} to the downside cannot move below the start of the first wave, limiting downside potential to a 50% decline at most.

Volatility

Implied volatility stands at 22% and has recovered somewhat from a sharp decline that began Jan. 16 from 28%.

The 22% level puts implied volatility in the 46th percentile of the one-year range. Historical volatility is quite close to the implied, standing only 8% above it.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.2% of trades will fall between $23.26 and $26.48 over the next month, for a potential gain or loss of 6.5%, and between $24.10 and $25.64 over the next week.

Contracts are trading slowly today, with puts at 46% of their five-day average volume and calls at 38% of average.

Decision for My Account

I intend to roll INTC forward into a bear position in the half hour before the closing bell if downward momentum continues. Volatility stands in the middle quintile of the annual range, so I'll structure my position as synthetic futures built from options.

If downside momentum falters, I'll continue to keep a close watch on INTC in hopes of finding an entry point.

Update 11/26/2013: INTC peaked for the day in the first 10 minutes of trading and then began to slide, bouncing in the early afternoon. It resumed its downward course in the last 20 minutes of trading.

I've opened a bear position as described in the "Decision for my account section" at the end of this analysis, a bear call spread expiring Dec. 20, short the $24 calls and long the $25 calls. 

Leverage is 6:1, with a 23.5% maximum yield on risk at expiration. The hedge of profitability above the entry price is is 2.2%. The position has a 65.9% chance of expiring with the maximum profit.

I'm breaking my rules today. It's a holiday week, so why not?

Intel Corp. (INTC), the most heavily traded of the 50 symbols that gave bull and bear signals on Monday, failed my initial screening overnight. (See "Tuesday's Prospects".)

I screen based on a score: The historical odds of success in the direction of the signal (a bear signal in INTC's case) multiplied by the average yield per theoretical trade in the that direction. It's a quick way of selecting out the prime cattle in the herd without getting too hung up on detail.

INTC has had even odds of a profitable bear trade under my rules since my present analytical period began on May 22. The problem is with the net gain: 2.8%, which produced a score of only 1.4%. I'm generally looking for scores of three and above in the trades that I take.

I like INTC because of its chart. On Monday it dropped below prior resistance, creating a clear downtrend for the first time since its present decline began on Nov. 21. This comes in the context of Elliott wave analysis that clearly shows INTC embarking on the middle of three downward moves in a downtrend of larger magnitude.

Big picture, I count INTC has being in an upward correction since February 2009. Most of the blue-chip charts I've analyzed count as a very large magnitude uptrend. INTC is different.

INTC 5 years weekly bars (left), 1 year daily bars (center), 90 days 4-hour bars (right)
From the correction peak of $29.27 in April 2009, INTC has declined in the classic five-wave pattern of Elliott wave analysis: Three down trends separated by two upward corrections.

Under Elliott wave doctrine, a wave second wave correction in a downtrend cannot move above the start of the first wave, and wave 2 in the center chart performed as expected.

Doctrine also says that the third wave in a downtrend will travel below the end of the first wave to lower lows. Wave 1 ended at $21.90 on Aug. 30. Wave 3 can be expected to drop below that level.

The chart, therefore, shows at a minimum about 8% downside potential, and perhaps significantly more.

A more detailed look at the odds shows that my quick-and-dirty overnight scoring of INTC was correct.

The odds of success in the downtrend beginning from the peak of wave C on June 4 are even, but the winning trades yielded 2.8% while the unsuccessful plays lost 4.3%, for a win/lose yield spread of negative 1.5%.

It's a paradox: A strong bearish chart since June but poor odds of success in that period. So which should I believe?

When in doubt, run with the chart.

Few of the 12 symbols that survived my initial screening had disqualifying problems.

All confirmed their signals by continuing to trade beyond their 20-day price channels.

The most liquid, SLW, is a mining play, and I'm already heavily exposed to the bear side in metals. OPI had a negative score from Zacks on a bull signal; I prefer that the signal and Zacks be aligned.

Otherwise, I saw a string of charts that at first glance, seemed OK, but lacked focus.

So I turned to Intel, figuring that the leverage of a stock that liquid would allow me to create a leveraged options position with a high probability of success.

Intel, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, is a household name whose silicon chips are the brains of most of the world's computers. The company has come under pressure from competitors for the low-power chips required by the exploding market for smart phones and pads, but I wouldn't bet against a company with Intel's resources and market dominance, not in the long-term at least.

But I'm a short-term trader, and INTC, like any stock, can decline, no matter how rosy its future might be two years out.

Analysts aren't seeing many roses. Collectively, they come down with a negative 34% enthusiasm rating in their assessments of Intel's prospects.

The company reports return on equity of 18%, with debt running at 24% of equity. My rule of thumb for a growth stock is returns of 20% or more with debt of 10% ore below.  By that standard, INTC may have strong numbers but it's no growth stock.

A look at the last three years shows quarterly earnings hit a peak in the 3rd quarter of 2011 and have since declined. slightly.

Intel's peak quarter tends to be the 3rds, which have come in below their year-ago counterparts for the past three years.

Intel has surprised to the upside 10 times in the last 12 quarters, and to the downside twice. The downers were the first two quarters of 2013.

Institutions own 60% of shares -- a bit low for a company of Intel's magnitude -- and the stock is priced at a premium: It takes $2.26 in shares to control a dollar in sales.

INTC on average trades 33,5 million shares a day, sufficient to support a wide selection of option strike prices spaced a dollar apart, with open interesting running to five and six figures near the money.

The front-month at-the-money puts have a bid/ask spread of only 1.5%.

Implied volatility stands at 21%, in the 93rd percentile of the six-month range. INTC has high implied volatility, suggesting that option spreads sold for credit, as as bear call spreads, will have the best chance of success.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.2% of trades will fall between $22.07 and $24.99 over the next month, for a potential gain or loss of 6.2%, and between $22.83 and $24.23 over the next week.

Contracts are trading at a lackadaisical pace, as might be expected during Thanksgiving week. Calls are running at 37% of their five-day average volume and puts at 39% of average.

Intel next publishes earnings on Jan. 17. The stock goes ex-dividend in February for a quarterly payout yielding 3.82% annualized at today's prices.

Decision for my account: I intend to open a bear position in INTC if downward momentum continues in the last half hour before the closing bell. If momentum falters, then I'll INTC to my Watchlist for later consideration.

I'm looking to place the trade as a bear calls spread, sold for credit and expiring Dec. 20. 

A spread built by selling the $24 calls and buying the $25 calls produces 6:1 leverage with a maximum potential yield on risk of 19.1% at expiration. The position would 2.6 hedge of profitability at expiration above the entry price.

Market modeling suggests that the short leg of the spread, the $24 calls, have a 69% chance of expiring with maximum profit.

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

By preference I place my trades in the last half hour before the closing bell in New York. See my essay "When is the best time to trade" for a discussion of the practice.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Tuesday's Prospects

On Monday, Nov. 25:

Of 2,373 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 47 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 25 to the upside and 22 to the downside.

Three symbols traded over the counter broke out, one to the upside and two to the downside.

Twelve symbols traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, 10 having broken out to the upside and two to the downside. The upside breakouts are BFR, BMA, BX, CBST, GGAL, GPI, NWBI, PAG, SHLD and TNC. The downside breakouts are SLW and WPRT.

No symbols traded over the counter survived initial screening.

I shall do further analysis on Tuesday, Nov. 26.

Methodology

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • an average yield of 3% or greater when adjusted for the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the uptrend from October 2011 on the S&P 500 chart began to falter, on May 22, 2013, calculated as average yield multiplied by the odds,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Monday's Outcomes: GILD

GILD undulated lower throughout the day. It remained above its 20-day price channel, keeping the bull-signal confirmation active, but it was a net down intraday. I'll put GILD on the Watchlist for further consideration. See my analysis, "GILD: Big Pharma bull play".

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Changes in my analytical practice

Note that I've made a few changes in my analytical practice that may be seen in today's analysis, "GILD: Big Pharma bull play".
  • I'm using the monthly implied volatility range of the options rather than the six-month range used previously.
  • I'm calculating the present implied volatility as a percentile within that range rather than describing it in relative terms. The 33rd percentile is 33% of the monthly range above the low point.
The first change puts greater focus on the near term volatility movements, which is appropriate for my short-term style of trading.

The percentile calculation allows me to make better decision regarding how I structure positions. 

Generally, relatively high implied volatility suggests short options spreads, whether bullish or bearish, and low implied volatility suggests long options spreads.

I define high as being 60% to 100% and low as being 40% to zero. The rest is medium.

Occasionally implied volatility will spike and retreat, creating an outlier. It will be my practice to disgard outliers when calculating the percentile.

Finally, in the "Decision for my account section", I've added a calculation that shows the chance of the trade achieving maximum yield in the case of options, or of attaining any profit, in the case of shares or single options.

This can be done only for optionable stocks and is based on modelling of the options pricing. Its main purpose is to help me decide how to best place a spread on the options grid in order to create a high-probability trade.

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

GILD: Big Pharma bull play

Update 3/10/2014: I'm removing GILD from the Watchlist. My best chance to open a bull position came in mid-January, but I was slow to act, and a good thing it was. The bull signal proved to be a four-day wonder before GILD resumes its desultory sideways meandering.

Therefore, I am removing GILD from the Watchlist.

The Elliott wave analysis suggests that GILD has completed its wave 5 {+1} rise from $69.05 beginning Dec. 17, 2013. That sets up a correction of the rise from $46.70 that began June 24, 2013.

GLD is unlikely to correct all the way below $47, but it is not unreasonable to expect a decline down to around $70, and perhaps as low as $60.

Click on chart to enlarge.
GILD 1 year daily bars

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) is nearing the end of its rise from June. But unlike many of the market's household names, GILD is only midway in its uptrend from December 2011, and indeed, from March 2004.

Even in the shorter term, there is room for profit. GILD is trading 10% the upper boundary of its trend channel, which is rising each day.

There is no rule that says an uptrend must bounce off the ceiling before ending, but often they do. However, $82.50 is not a minimum target, only a possibility.

GILD broke out to a 55-day high on Friday and confirmed the bull signal by trading above that level today.

Elliott wave analysis considers price movements in the direction of a trend to come in three waves, separated by two corrections in the opposite direction. The pattern of stock price movements is fractal in nature -- a trend contains trends of lesser magnitude, and is in turn part of trends of greater magnitude.

At the highest magnitude, I count GILD as being within wave III of an uptrend that began in March 2004 from $6.44. Wave III began on Dec. 19, 2011 from $18.49.

GILD 10 years monthly bars (left), 3 years 2-day bars (center), 180 days 6-hour bars (right)

Down one magnitude, GILD is in wave 3 of an uptrend from $22.67 on May 11, 2012, and still lower, in wave v (lower-case roman numeral five) from $46.70 on Jun 24.2013. At the very lowest magnitude that I've counted, GILD is in wave (5) up from $85.53 on Nov. 7.

A fifth wave is the final push that culminates a trend. That means GILD will be due for a correction in a timespan that could be measured in weeks rather than months, taking back some of the gains since last June. Often corrections retreat by around 50%, which would suggest downside risk down to $60 or so.

No guarantees, however. Elliott wave analysis often does an excellent job of providing a "You are here" arrow on my map of the trend, but I find it to fail as often as not when it comes to target prices. My practice is to use Elliott to place the trade, and to rely on my exit rules to get out.

Durations as well are fickle. GILD could turn quickly, or stretch out its final run to the finish line.

Elliott also comes with a lot of ambiguity, because it is never possible to know with certainty what magnitude a turning point belongs to. The GILD chart, I think, shows unusual clarity. I have no alternate count.

This is GILD's fourth bull signal in the uptrend that began in June. Two the prior breakouts were profitable, yielding 4.8% over 21 days on average. The unsuccessful signal lost 1.6% over 10 days. That gives a reasonably good 3.2% win/lose yield spread.

Over the longer term, completed signals in the rise from 2011 have split evenly between winners and losers, at five apiece. The win/lose yield spread for them is 2.7%.

GILD was one of 15 symbols, all bullish, that survived my initial screening and was the most liquid of a fairly illiquid batch. (See "Monday's Prospects".)

Five failed confirmation: HFL, MUR, ARMH and NXST.

Three had negative Zacks ratings, putting them at odds with their trend: CY, ENV and FLIR.

One, NUS, is already among my holdings, having been rolled forward from an earlier breakout.

I ignored the rest because they lacked options and therefore had no possibility of leverage and hedging.

Gilead Sciences, headquartered in Foster City, California, is a pharmaceutical house that began with a focus on developing HIV therapies and has since branched out into cardiovascular, respiratory, liver and cancer treatments. They promote themselves under the slogan, "Advancing Therapeutics, Improving Lives", and stress in their pitch that they are "research based".

Analysts in aggregate give Gilead a 65% enthusiasm rating, indicating a high opinion of its future prospects as an investment.

Certainly its present is bright. Gilead reports return on equity of 30%, with debt running to 55% of equity.

Quarterly earnings have been positive and steady over the past three years. Gilead has surprised to the upside in seven quarters, and to the downside in four.

Institutions own 92% of shares and the price has been bid up to highly optimistic levels. It takes $10.67 in shares to control a dollar in sales.

GILD on average trades 10.4 million shares a day and supports a wide selection of options strike prices spaced mainly $2.50 apart, with open interest running to four figures at the strikes where I would construct a position.

Implied volatility stands at 30% and has ranged from a low of 27% to a high of 36% over the past month. It has been declining since mid-November.

Volatility stands at the 33rd percentile, which I rate as low volatility favoring long options positions, such as bull call spreads.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.2% of trades will fall between $68.42 and $81.45 over the next month, for  a potential gain or loss of 8.7%, and between $71.80 and $78.06 over the next week.

Contracts are trading actively today, with calls running 63% above their five-day average volume and puts at 35% above average.

Gilead next publishes earnings on Feb. 14.

Decision for my account: I intend to open a bull position in GILD, structuring it as a bull call spread, bought for a debit and expiring in May. The position I have in mind -- long the $70 calls and short the $72.50s -- gives a maximum potential yield at expiration is 75% with 7:1 leverage and carries an 8.9% hedge of profitability below the entry price.

Options modelling suggests that the probability of attaining maximum profit is 65%.

I'll open the position in the last half hour before the closing bell if GILD shows upside momentum. If momemtum falters, then I'll add GILD to my Watchlist for later consideration.

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

By preference I place my trades in the last half hour before the closing bell in New York. See my essay "When is the best time to trade" for a discussion of the practice.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

The Week Ahead: Housing starts, durable goods, turkey stuffing

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The rest of the world, unthankfully, will be open for business.

Despite the holiday, a scattering of major reports are due for release.

Two housing starts reports, the most recent one and another from October that was delayed by the national government shutdown, will be out at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday.

The durable goods orders report on the big, expensive stuff is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Friday. (It has been moved from its normal Thursday slot because of the holiday.)

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts, at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday. (Two reports, one old, one new.)

The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Tuesday. (The report has been moved from its normal Friday release because of the holiday.)

Other reports of interest:

Monday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the Dalas Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index, tracking sales in 20 metro areas, at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Fedsters

The glitteratti of the Federal Reserve are publicly silent this week and are no doubt preparing their holiday feasts, busily stimulating their pumpkin pies with cinnamon and cloves and preparing turkey stuffing from shredded Treasuries.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 2,373 stocks and exchange-traded funds that have some analyst interest. They are traded both on the major U.S. exchanges and over-the-counter. My universe is selected from mid-cap stocks and larger, defined as market capitalization of $1 billion and greater.

Trading calendar

By my rules, I'm trading December options for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading March options for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading!

Monday's Prospects

On Friday, Nov. 22:

Of 2,373 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 59 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 46 to the upside and 13 to the downside.

Four symbols traded over the counter broke out, three to the upside and one to the downside.

Fourteen symbols traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, all having broken out to the upside. They are AF, ARMH, CY, ENS, ENV, FLIR, GILD, HLF, MUR, NUS, NXST, PBYI, SNHY and SYA.

One symbols traded over the counter, CRRFY, survived initial screening, having broken out to the upside.

I shall do further analysis on Monday, Nov. 25.

Methodology

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • an average yield of 3% or greater when adjusted for the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the uptrend from October 2011 on the S&P 500 chart began to falter, on May 22, 2013, calculated as average yield multiplied by the odds,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Friday's Outcomes: YHOO, FIX

YHOO broke out to the upside again and I've taken it from the Watchlist and opened a bull position. See "YHOO: Trouble in Paradise".

FIX, which I analyzed as a potential bull trade today, traded below its opening price in all but the first half hour after the opening bell and developed additional downside momentum in the half hour before the closing bell. I'm putting FIX on the Watchlist for later consideration if upside momentum resumes. See "FIX: Room to run at the end".

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

FIX: Room to run at the end

Update 12/11/2013: FIX dropped decisively below its 20-day price channel on Dec. 11. I've removed it from the Watchlist, where it has sat since Nov. 22 wating for an entry opportunity for a bull play.

Because of the breakout to the downside, I have removed FIX from my Watchlist as a trade candidate.

I'm caught in a quandary with the large- and mid-cap stocks. As the major indexes make a series of all-time highs, most of the major bull signals unearthed by my analysis are either rising within a downward correction or nearing the end of their rise according to my Elliott wave analysis.

The bear signals, on the other hand, are mainly on companies that dig stuff out of the ground. My holdings already have gold, silver, coal, oil and gas. If I could find a good potato play, I could cover yet another underground sector, but lacking that, I can only throw up my hands and say, "Enough!"

I don't like any of the 15 charts offered up by my overnight analysis. (See "Friday's Prospects".)

In addition to the large- and mid-cap stocks that are the bread and butter of my trading, I also do, on the side, an analytical run of small-cap stocks. There are 311 fish in the small-cap pool this week, all pulled from companies with market capitalization of under $1 billion that are tracked by the rating company Zacks.

When the big fish fail to come through, I turn to the small fry.

Comfort Systems USA Inc. (FIX), headquartered in Houston, Texas, is one of the many infrastructure companies that make it possible to fill large buildings with workers and customers. They install and maintain the heating, ventilation and cooling systems that go under the moniker HVAC. The company operates in 87 locations in the United States.

If your cubicle sits in one of those cities, there's a good chance you can thank Comfort Systems for making life on the job bearable.

FIX has been on the rise since Nov. 15, 2012, when a long correction that began in April 2006 came to an end at $9.52. It has been in an uptrend since and broke above its 20-day price channel on thursday, confirming the bull signal today by continuing to trade above the breakout level.

To its detriment, FIX has remained below Thursday's high of $20.95, although its has four more hours in the normal trading day to correct that fault.

Since the uptrend began, I count FIX as having completed two uptrends and two corrections, and see it as being in the final uptrend, which I've labelled wave 5.

Within wave 5, I have a similar count, with FIX being in its final wave up during at the lower magnitude, which I've labelled wave v, using a lower-case Roman numeral.

FIX 2 years daily bars (left), 90 days hourly bars (right)

The question is, why would I dive in with a bull play when I'm in wave 5 of v, and when I know, from Elliott wave doctrine, that five spells the end of the line for a trend.

It comes down to a question of look and feel. Elliott wave counts are inherently ambiguous because there is no sure method of assigning a turning point to any particular magnitude within the fractal ladder that constitutes the markets.

I tend to use time as a guide -- the trends at one level should have roughly similar durations. Waves i and iii each lasted a month, and wave v began on Thursday, one day ago. That tells me that wave v likely has some time to go, although there is nothing in Elliott wave doctrine that forbids the concluding wave from being a two-day wonder.

On the other hand, at a higher magnitude, waves 1 and 3 took four months and three months respectively to complete their runs. Wave 5 has been in existence for three months now.

In the case of competing durations, I tend to focus my analysis on the smaller magnitude count as being more representative of what's happening now, rather than a year ago.

The trend channels that I've put in the right-hand chart highlight the distorted nature of FIX's movements. Wave iii was a high-momentum move that broke above the original trend channel, based on the starts of waves i and iiii, and the subsequent wave iv never returned to its upper boundary.

A new trend channel, based on the starts of waves iii and v, so far has contained the wave v move and suggests at least another 5% of room to the upside.

Returning to the higher magnitude -- the wave 5 rise has seen to prior bull signals. They split. The successful trade yielded 11.7% over 28 days. The unsuccessful trade lost 2.8% over 14 days. The resulting 8.9% win/lose yield spread is quite impressive.

Comfort Systems reports an 8% return on equity with very low debt amounting to 2% of equity.

The earnings show a company that spent 2011 and 2012 struggling a bit, with two quarters showing losses. The business turned up in 2013, and the most recent quarter produced an earnings high of the past three years.

Earnings for this company tend to peak in the third or fourth quarters. The peaks in 2012 and 2013 have exceeded their year-ago counterparts.

Comfort Systems surprised to the upside 10 times in the past three years, including the two losing quarters, and to the downside twice.

Institutions own 96% of shares, which are selling at a discount to sales. It takes 57 cents in shares to control a dollar in in sales.

FIX on average trades 228,000 shares a day. It supports a wide range of options strike prices spaced $2.50 apart but with low open interest. Only one strike -- the $20 puts -- reaches the three figures I require.

The front-month at-the-money bid/ask spread on calls is 400% -- that's not a typo. I won't trade options with those characteristics, so any position I might open in FIX will be as long shares.

However, the options can be pressed into the service of analysis.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, in the lower half of the six-month range, and has been on the rise from a 22% six-month low on Nov. 13.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.2% of trades will fall between $18.82 and $22.50 over the next month, for a potential gain or loss of 8.9%, and between $19.77 and $21.55 over the next week.

Contracts are trading at a slow pace today, with calls at 61% of their five-day average volume and puts at 38% of average.

Comfort Systems next publishes earnings on Feb. 24. The stock goes ex-dividend in February for a quarterly payout yielding 1.06% annualized at today's prices.

Decision for my account: I intend to open a bull position in FIX if it continues to show upside momentum in the last half hour before the closing bell, structuring it as long shares.

True, the chart presents a note of caution with the run-up from 2012 clearly reaching its final stages. But the duration of the prior uptrends suggests that there is sufficient time to profit from the lifespan and the present, final price rise.

I'll add FIX to my Watchlist if momentum falters at the end of trading today.

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

By preference I place my trades in the last half hour before the closing bell in New York. See my essay "When is the best time to trade" for a discussion of the practice.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Friday's Prospects

On Thursday, Nov. 21:

Of 2,374 stocks and exchange-traded funds in this week's analytical universe, 44 that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 33 to the upside and 11 to the downside.

Eight symbols traded over the counter broke out, five to the upside and three to the downside.

Thirteen symbols traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, 11 having broken out to the upside and two to the downside. The upside symbols are ABG, DLX, GNW, HMN, JNPR, PPC, PRK, SWKS, WBS, WCG and YZC. The downside symbols are BTU and GOLD.

Two symbols traded over the counter, NDEKY and RWEOY, survived initial screening, both having broken out to the upside.

I shall do further analysis on Friday, Nov. 22.

Methodology

The symbols I'm analyzing are mid- and large-cap stocks having analyst coverage, as well as selected exchange-traded funds. I screened them for...
  • an average yield of 3% or greater when adjusted for the odds of a successful trades in the direction of the breakout since the uptrend from October 2011 on the S&P 500 chart began to falter, on May 22, 2013, calculated as average yield multiplied by the odds,
  • and absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days. 
For bear signals, I also screened to ensure the ability to do a trade, either because of the presence of options whatever their open interest or sufficient volume to allow for the short sale of shares.

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Thursday's Outcomes: ABX

I've opened a bear position in ABX and have updated the analysis with details. See "ABX: Bearish on a gold miner".

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

ABX: Bearish on a gold miner

Update 1/3/2014: Since my ABX options expired in December, I've been awaiting a fresh break below the 20-day price channel to trigger the opening of a new position. That day never came, and ABX on Jan. 2 closed above the 20-day price channel and confirmed that breakout in trading today.

So I've removed ABX from the Roll Shelf and tallied the results.

During the position's 22-day lifespan, ABX shares declined by 1.1%, or 18.7% annualized. My bear call options spread produced a positive 13.6% yield on risk in that period, or 224.8% annualized.

Update 11/21/2013: I've opened a bear position in ABX, structuring it as a bear call spread sold for credit and expiring in December. The position has 4:1 leverage with maximum yield at expiration of 29%. There is a 3.5% hedge of profitability above the entry price.

Wednesday's trading was punctuated by a series of bear signals on gold mining shares, as well as on gold itself in the form of the bullion exchange-traded fund GLD. I've chosen to take a closer look at the most liquid of the bunch, the miner Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX).

ABX broke below its 20-day price channel on Wednesday and its 55-day channel today, confirming the first bear signal since September.

The chart presents an easy Elliott wave analysis in its broad strokes, but it is a bit messier in detail.

ABX 3 years weekly bars (left), five months 2-hour bars (right)

ABX hit a low of $13.43 on July 5, rose 57% to $21.20 on Aug. 27 in the start of what has proven to be a sideways correction.

In the right chart, the most recent uptrend's failure to come closer than 2.8% to the peak of wave A, and the subsequent push  below the Oct. 14 low suggests that the sideways correction is at an end and a new major push to the downside has begun.

That's the way I've labelled it, putting the completion of the correction as the end of wave C on Oct. 28 and the downtrend in progress as wave 1, to be followed by two more downtrends separated by corrections to the upside or sideways.

Counting corrections using Elliott wave analysis is rarely a cut and dried exercise. There are many corrective patterns, and what seems to be one form can morph into another as it progresses. The main trends -- three in the direction of the major movement with two corrections -- tend to be much clearer.

So it is quite possible that the correction from last August is still underway. If that's the case, then ABX is unlikely to exceed the wave A peak of $21.20, nor would it be likely to fall much further. That would greatly increase the odds of it being a losing position over the shorter run.

If wave 1 has begun, then the price will continue to fall and a bear play will show excellent profits.

ABX was one of nine symbols that survived initial screening overnight. (See "Thursday's Prospects".)

Three failed confirmation: K, PLT and WTR.

Three in addition to ABX were gold-mining companies: EGO, IAG and AU.

HE has options that are too illiquid to support a bear trade according to my preferences.

That left NPSKY, the sole  bull signal from Wednesday, with average volume of only 5,000 shares a day.

Barrick Gold, headquartered in Toronto, Ontario, is the world's largest gold miner, with operations ranging around the world far from its native Canada. Gold accounts for nine-tenths of its market capitalization, with copper making up the rest.

Gold's best days are behind it, despite the reluctance of many to give up on its promise. David J. Lynch and Peter Robison, writing in BloombergBusinessweek, captured the conflicting views in a Nov. 14 article headlined online, "Republicans Asserting Reliance on Gold as World Loses Faith".

Analysts, certainly, are falling more on the lost faith side of the meme, collectively coming down with an 83% negative enthusiasm rating.

Barrick's financials don't support the pessimism. The company reports 16% return on equity, although the debt level is rather high, at 91% of equity.

Earnings hit a four-year peak in the 3rd quarter of 2011 and have since fallen, with one upward nudge, while showing a profit throughout the period.

Barrick has surprised to the upside seven times in the last three years, and five times to the downside.

Institutions own 42% of shares, a very low level for a major company, yet the price has been bid up above sales parity. It takes $1.45 in shares to control a dollar in sales.

Barrick on average trades 17.4 million shares a day and supports a wide selection of option strike prices spaced a dollar apart, with open interesting running to four and five figures. The front-month at-the-money bid/ask spread on puts stands at 1.4%.

Implied volatility stands at 38%, near the bottom of the six-month range, and has been working its way downward from 68% in early July.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.2% of trades will fall between $15.25 and $18.55 over the next month, for a potential gain or loss of 9.7%, and between $16.11 and $17.69 over the next week.

Contract trading is active today, with calls and puts both running about 50% above their five-day average volume.

Barrick Gold next publishes earnings on Feb. 17. The stock goes ex-dividend on Nov. 26 for a quarterly payout yielding 1.18% annualized at today's prices.

Decision for my account: The chart is ambiguous but it is bearish enough to be worth the risk, in my opinion. I intend to open a bear position in ABX if downside momentum continues into the last half hour before the closing bell.

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

By preference I place my trades in the last half hour before the closing bell in New York. See my essay "When is the best time to trade" for a discussion of the practice.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.