5/2 Almanac

On Monday, May 2: Manufacturing.

There are 19 days before May options expire, 47 the June, 75 the July and 110 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

4/29 Top Prospects

Ten new breakouts today beyond the boundaries of the 55-day price channel. Additionally, PG broke out to the upside, but with a declining average directional index (adx), which disallows the phase change.

RIMM's breakdown below the channel was the result of a massive price gap.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
APA		18	apr29	$132.50	$129.52	2.98	2.3%
CL		32	apr29	$83.72	$82.55	1.17	1.4%
EZA*		22	apr29	$75.99	$74.64	1.57	2.1%
MCD		26	apr29	$78.44	$77.46	0.98	1.3%
OXY		17	apr29	$107.56	$104.50	3.06	2.8%
PPLT*		13	apr29	$185.20	$182.86	2.34	1.3%
RIMM		28	apr29	$52.66	$51.95	2.10	4.0%
S		13	apr29	$5.26	$5.10	0.16	3.0%
SWN		20	apr29	$43.96	$42.86	1.10	2.5%
UNG*		15	apr29	$11.91	$11.64	0.27	2.3%

Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

4/29 Earns

There are no earnings announcements on my watchlist after the close today (April 29) and before the open on Monday (May 2). The next earnings from my list are after the close on Monday.

My list is composed of 143 stocks from the CBOE's penny increment options list. The goal in harvesting them was to get issues with volumes down to around AMZN's.

So, there may well be significant earnings announcements in this period -- they're just not on my current list. I make to claims to thoroughness in this matter.

4/29 Forex

One breakout beyond the 55-day price channel among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
EUR/MXN		15	apr29	Mex$17.167	Mex$17.024	0.143	0.8%

4/29 Indicators

No new breakouts among the indicators I follow.

Stocks

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
SPY*					apr27	$135.06	$133.69	✔
QQQ*					apr27;	$59.04	$58.32	✔
VIX*

Bonds

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
TLT
JNK*					apr27	$40.78	$40.61;	✔

Tangibles

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
USO					apr1	$42.83	$41.98
GLD*					apr5	$141.28	$139.72

Global

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
UUP*					apr8	$21.62	$21.67
EEM					mar30	$48.21	$47.41

4/29 Almanac

On Friday, April 29: Wotcha made, wotcha spent, wotcha saved. Oh, and a coupla kids are getting hitched in Merry Old E.

There are 22 days before May options expire, 50 the June, 78 the July and 113 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

4/28 Top Prospects

Six new breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel, including some major exchange-traded funds. Thank you, Ben Bernanke!!

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
DD		14	apr28	$56.52	$54.53	1.16	2.1%
IWM*		16	apr28	$85.88	$84.66	1.22	1.4%
QQQ*		18	apr27	$59.04	$57.97	0.69	1.2%
SPY*		15	apr27	$135.06	$133.69	1.37	1.0%
USO		29	apr28	$45.20	$43.37	1.00	2.2%
XLU*		17	apr28	$32.89	$32.56	0.33	1.0%

Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

4/28 Earns

I'm tracking 10 earnings announcements after the close today (April 28) and the open tomorrow (April 29).

The 800-pound gorilla of the batch is MSFT, out today.

When I score these stocks, I'm looking to find which meet these criteria:

• The 14-day average true range is 2.5% of the price or higher.
• Of the last five quarters, earnings have shown a 50% surprise, in either direction, at least three times, and additionally, a 20% surprise at least two times.

MSFT fails on both counts only one 20%+ surprise the last five quarters, and volatility of 1.7%.

Only one straddle/strangle prospect is both high surprise and high volatility: CX, out tomorrow before the open. It has had four 50%+ surprises, and an additional 20% plus surprise, out of the last five quarters, with volatility of 3.1%.

MRK is high on earnings surprises but lower than my criterion for volatility.

AEM, CLF and HGSI -- all out today -- are sufficiently volatile but lack surprisiness.

Aside from MSFT, those failing to meet both criteria are SWN, out today, and CAT, CVX and DHI, out tomorrow.

By the way, when I say a stock fails to meet criteria, I'm not drawing conclusions about whether its a decent play. MSFT fails on both counts, and could fluctuate wildly after the announcement. Or not. The whole point of playing straddles and strangles around earnings is that you are totally clueless about what will happen.

4/28 Forex

Nine breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
CAD/SEK		12	apr28	Skr6.342	Skr6.407	0.068	1.1%
CHF/JPY		20	apr28	¥94.025	¥92.96	1.067	1.1%
DKK/SGD		17	apr28	S$0.2446	S$0.2427	0.0019	0.8%
EUR/CAD		14	apr27	C$1.4063	C$1.9384	0.0105	0.8%
EUR/SGD		20	apr28	S$1.8251	S$1.8110	0.0141	0.8%
EUR/TRY		19	apr28	TL2.2490	TL2.2296	0.0194	0.9%
GBP/HKD		19	apr27	HK$12.8971	HK$12.8800	0.0171	0.13%
GBP/HUF		25	apr28	Ft296.78	Ft300.32	3.54	1.2%
GBP/THB		15	apr28	฿49.86	฿49.50	0.36	0.7%

4/28 Indicators

The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have both broken above the 55-day price channel with a rising average directional index and so have moved to bull phase.

Stocks

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
SPY*					apr27	$135.06	$133.69	✔
QQQ*					apr27;	$59.04	$58.32	✔
VIX

Bonds

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
TLT
JNK					apr27	$40.78	$40.61;	✔

Tangibles

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
USO					apr1	$42.83	$41.98
GLD					apr5	$141.28	$139.72

Global

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
UUP					apr8	$21.62	$21.67
EEM					mar30	$48.21	$47.41

4/28 Almanac

On Thursday, April 28: GDP, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales.

There are 23 days before May options expire, 51 the June and 79 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

4/27 Top Prospects

Seven new breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel from today's scan, which I did after the Fed's monetary policy announcement but before Chairman Bernanke's newser.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
AMGN		14	apr27	$56.44	$54.99	1.10	2.0%
AMZN		28	apr27	$191.40	$178.26	4.49	2.3%
BRCM		25	apr27	$36.95	$38.19	1.24	3.4%
GGP		15	apr27	$14.13	$15.48	0.32	2.90%
T		24	apr27	$31.00	$30.51	0.40	1.3%
X		20	apr27	$49.28	$50.90	1.56	3.2%
EWP+		13	apr27	$44.55	$43.51	0.72	1.6%

Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

4/27 Earns

Eighteen of the stocks I'm tracking announce earnings after the close today (April 27) or before the open tomorrow (April 28). Two of them, PHM and RCL, are both prone to big earnings surprises and are volatile.

The 800-pound gorillas of the batch are SBUX and EBAY.

When I score these stocks, I'm looking to find which meet these criteria:

• The 14-day average true range is 2.5% of the price or higher.
• Of the last five quarters, earnings have shown a 50% surprise, in either direction, at least three times, and additionally, a 20% surprise at least two times.
  

Among those announcing after the close today, none are prone to earnings surprises, but two meet the volatility criterion. They are AKAM and FLEX. Other's announcing today are ALL, CLF, EBAY and SBUX.

Neither SBUX nor EBAY are in my volatility range. EBAY has some surprisiness -- it has had one over 50% in the last five quarters. SBUX, however, has had no earnings surprises at 20% or above in the past five quarters.

Among those announcing tomorrow before the open are PHM and RCL, both of which are sufficiently volatile and surprise-prone to meet my standards. PHM has shown a 20%+ surprise for each of the past five quarters, four of them above 50%. RCL has shown four 50%+ surprises out of hte five quarters.

Tomorrow's announcements meeting the volatility criterion but lacking the surprise history are IP, POT, S and TYC.

Also announcing pre-open tomorrow are APA, BMY, CTIC, DOW, MYL, OXY, PEP, PG and XOM.

4/27 Forex

Two breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
CAD/DKK		12	apr27	Dkr5.3296	Dkr5.3947	0.0418	0.8%
NZD/SGD		37	apr27	S$0.9950	S$0.9808	0.0093	0.9%

4/27 Indicators

The high-yield corporate bonds fund, JNK, has broken out into bull phase.

SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, again broke past the upper boundary of the 55-day price channel, but the average directional index continues to (barely) decline, so the fund remains in neutral phase.

The Nasdaq 100 fund, QQQ, is within 3¢ of a breakout to the upside.

Stocks

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
SPY
QQQ
VIX

Bonds

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
TLT
JNK					apr27	$40.78	$40.61;	✔

Tangibles

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
USO					apr1	$42.83	$41.98
GLD					apr5	$141.28	$139.72

Global

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
UUP					apr8	$21.62	$21.67
EEM					mar30	$48.21	$47.41

4/27 Almanac

On Wednesday, April 27: Monetary policy, durable goods.

There are 24 days before May options expire, 52 the June and 80 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

4/26 Earns

My scan for earnings plays -- stocks that are candidates for straddles and strangles in an effort to capture sharp moves in either direction -- uncovered four stocks that are either surprise prone, have high volatility, or both.

NBR is both volatile and prone to surprises -- three out of last five quarters produced surprises exceeding 50%. BP, as a result of the Gulf oil spill, has had surprises of 50% and greater in each of the past five quarters, but it is of a lower volatility.

ABX and BHI lack surprisiness, but are higher in volatility.

ABX announces after the close today, April 26. BP, ABX and BHI are scheduled to announce before the open tomorrow, April 27.

When I score these stocks, I'm looking for them to meet these criteria:

• The 14-day average true range is 2.5% of the price or higher.
• Of the last five quarters, earnings have shown a 50% surprise, in either direction, at least three times, and additionally, a 20% surprise at least two times.
  

Among the others announcing, which failed to meet my criteria, the 800-pound gorilla is AMZN, after the close today. At $180-plus per share, it's a pretty expensive stock for straddles or strangles. It has not had a single earnings surprise in the past five quarters. This time? Who knows?

BRCM also announces after today's close. Announcing before tomorrow's open are BA, COP, GLW and the dividend-paying utility SO.

4/26 Top Prospects

Six breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel, as the markets finally wake up for the goodmorning.

The S&P 500 (SPY) , the industrial sector (XLI) and Halliburton (HAL) broke out of channel today, but with a declining average directional index (adx). So, by my rules, I can’t open a new position.

However, I have bent the rules below by including SSO, an ultra fund that tracks the S&P 500, as SPY does. Unlike SPY, the SSO’s adx is rising.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
ECH		18	apr26	$76.00	$74.52	1.24	1.6%
INTC*		28	apr26	$22.21	$21.38	0.43	1.9%
IYR		18	apr25	$60.79	$59.65	0.75	1.2%
SSO		13	apr26	$54.89	$53.20	1.07	2.0%
XLY		13	apr26	$40.02	$39.39	0.45	1.1%
XRT*		25	apr26	$53.12	$51.78	0.81	1.5%

Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

4/26 Forex

Four breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
CAD/PLN		15	apr26	$2.8274	$2.8769	0.0317	1.1%
EUR/THB		14	apr26	$43.725	$42.329	0.396	0.9%
GBP/PLN		16	apr26	$4.432	$5.59	0.050	0.9%
NZD/THB		33	apr26	$24.060	$23.624	0.261	1.1%

4/26 Indicators

Stocks

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
SPY
QQQ
VIX

Bonds

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
TLT
JNK

Tangibles

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
USO					apr1	$42.83	$41.98
GLD					apr5	$141.28	$139.72

Global

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
UUP					apr8	$21.62	$21.67
EEM					mar30	$48.21	$47.41

4/26 Almanac

On Tuesday, April 26: Consumer Confidence.

There are 25 days before May options expire, 53 the June and 81 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

4/25 Top Prospects

A scan of highly liquid stocks, foreign market funds and commodity funds turned up no -- as in zero -- new breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel. My rules exclude stocks that are within a month of earnings. The scan of stocks on the CBOE penny-increment options list went down to a daily volume of around 3 million, running from C at the top to AMZN at the bottom.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to hold a news conference on Wednesday after a two-day monetary policy meeting. It is the first time any Fed chairman has done such an event, and the U.S. markets -- no, the world's, and maybe several extraterrestrial exchanges as well -- are all holding their collective breath waiting for the great man to speak.

4/25 Earns

NFLX reports earnings after today's (April 25) close, and a bunch of heavy hitters weigh in before tomorrow (April 26) open.

I'm looking for volatile, earnings-surprise-prone stocks suitable for options straddles and strangles that meet these criteria:

• The 14-day average true range is 2.5% of the price or higher.
• Of the last five quarters, earnings have shown a 50% surprise, in either direction, at least three times, and additionally, a 20% surprise at least two times.
  

Here's what I found:

NFLX is plenty volatile, but it's not prone to earnigns surprises.

Of the rest, ACI, AKS, DAL and X meet my criteria for both volatility and surprisiness. (Is that a word?)

RF is prone to surprises but comes up a bit short on volatility.

NOV and VLO are sufficiently volatile but have insufficient surprises.

KO and UPS are both low volatility and low surprise.

And CIT -- well, CIT lacks data in the system I'm using.

4/25 Forex

I’ve reviewed 124 currency pairs and found no new breakouts. See my review from last Friday for a status report on pairs that are in bull or bear phase.

4/25 Indicators

Stocks

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
SPY
QQQ
VIX

Bonds

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
TLT
JNK

Tangibles

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
USO					apr1	$42.83	$41.98
GLD					apr5	$141.28	$139.72

Global

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
UUP					apr8	$21.62	$21.67
EEM					mar30	$48.21	$47.41

Changes

I've revised my trading rules guide (in How I Trade on the menu bar) as follows:

1. I've removed the parabolic sar oscillator from the price-channel rules, although I retain it as a possible ad hoc management tool.

2. I've added trading rules for earnings plays (using straddles and strangles) and dividend plays.

3. I've written a section on position sizing, a subject I consider to be of fundamental importance to successful trading.

Markets Closed

All U.S. markets are closed today, Friday, April 22.

Forex, of course, is trading somewhere all the time. See today's Forex posting for the latest.

Markets in the United States will reopen on Monday.

4/22 Forex

With the U.S. markets closed for the day, I’m taking an opportunity to survey a broad list of currency pairs, not only for new price-channel breakouts but for existing bull and bear phases.

One reason for doing this is to move away from the dollar-centric pairs. These days, anyone trading the majors will be over-exposed to shorting the U.S. dollar, which is the main (negative) game in a town, or going long the Aussie, which is the other (positive) main game.

Cross-pairs and exotics bring some diversification to the mix, although with everything in the global economy so inter-connected, I’m not sure true diversification is possible, be the vehicle currencies, stocks, bonds or commodities. Well, baseball cards, maybe. Super Bowl tickets.

The stop in the table below, by the way, is calculated at the time of breakout.

For trading, once the price has moved away from the breakout level, I use a double-atr trailing stop: For a bull play, take the average true range, multiply by two and subtract it from the highest high since the position was opened. For a bear play, add twice the atr to the lowest low since opening.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
AUD/CAD		19	apr13	C$1.0126	C$1.0942	0.0084	0.8%
AUD/HKD		26	mar24	HK$7.9450	HK$7.8377	0.1073	1.4%
AUD/SGD		28	apr21	S$1.3302	S$1.3186	0.0116	0.9%
AUD/THB		21	apr6	฿31.418	฿31.113	0.305	1.0%
AUD/USD*		26	mar24	US$1.0201	US$1.0088	0.0140	1.0%
CAD/HKD		18	apr20	HK$8.1539	HK$8.0904	0.0635	0.8%
CAD/NOK		12	apr8	Nkr5.6315	Nkr5.6862	0.0547	1.0%
CHF/HKD		29	apr20	HK$8.7410	HK$8.6546	0.0864	1.0%
EUR/HKD		21	apr20	HK$11.2876	HK$11.1773	0.1103	1.0%
EUR/USD*		19	apr21	US$1.4547	US$1.4407	0.0140	1.0%
GBP/AUD		24	mar28	A$1.5582	A$1.5377	0.0205	1.3%
GBP/CZK		18	mar18	Kč29.671	Kč28.396	0.277	0.9%
GBP/HKD		15	apr21	HK$12.7866	HK$12.6932	0.0934	0.7%
GBP/NOK		20	mar24	Nkr8.9645	Nkr9.0684	0.1039	1.2%
GBP/NZD		30	apr15	NZ$2.0149	NZ$2.0384	0.0235	1.2%
GBP/SEK		14	apr20	Skr10.077	Skr10.200	0.123	1.2%
GBP/USD		15	apr21	US$1.6427	US$1.6305	0.0122	0.7%
NZD/HKD		39	apr11	HK$6.0931	HK$6.0320	0.0611	1.0%
NZD/USD		34	apr20	US$0.8002	US$0.7907	0.0095	1.2%
SGD/HKD		20	mar22	HK$6.1620	HK$6.1294	0.0326	0.5%
USD/CAD		18	apr20	C$0.9526	C$0.9602	0.0076	0.8%
USD/CHF		29	apr20	SF0.8895	SF0.8987	0.0092	1.0%
USD/CZK		18	apr20	Kč16.662	Kč16.480	0.182	1.1%
USD/DKK		18	apr20	Dkr5.1356	Dkr5.1873	0.0517	1.0%
USD/HKD		17	apr21	HK$7.7654	HK$7.7712	0.0058	0.1%
USD/ILS		34	apr21	₪3.4003	₪3.0771	0.0275	0.8%
USD/MXN		23	mar31	Mex$11.8789	Mex$11.9722	0.0933	0.8%
USD/NOK		21	apr20	Nkr5.3635	Nkr5.4360	0.0725	1.4%
USD/SEK		12	apr20	Skr6.1765	Skr6.2631	0.0866	1.4%
USD/SGD		18	mar22	S$1.2635	S$1.2702	0.0067	0.5%
USD/THB		39	apr21	฿29.833	฿29.923	0.090	0.3%

4/25 Almanac

Markets are closed on Friday, April 22, except for forex trading.

On Monday, April 25: New home sales. There are 26 days before May options expire, 54 the June and 82 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

4/21 Top Prospects

New breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel. To get these, I scanned stocks having penny-increment options with volume down to AMZN (about 3 million shares), plus assorted foreign-market exchange-traded funds (the BRICs, the Next 11 countries that have funds, and some other places), and an assort of other funds, heavy on but not limited to metals.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
BBT		16	apr21	$26.17	$26.60	0.50	1.9%
EIS+		17	apr21	$60.29	$59.64	0.65	1.1%
EWA+		23	apr21	$27.96	$27.53	0.43	1.5%
FXI+		22	apr21	$46.38	$45.72	0.66	1.4%
ORCL*		17	apr21	$34.43	$33.82	0.61	1.8%

Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

4/21 Earns

Only two earnings prospects for after the close today, as befits the last trading day before a three-day spring weekend.

Fortunately for straddle-meisters, the two -- AMD and SNDK -- are both highly prone to earnings surprises and have fairly high volatility.

In theory, that's the winning mix for a post-earnings move.

In fact? Well, that's a subject for testing -- forward testing in my case. I'm keeping track of the earnings this season, with an eye to understanding the relationship between a history of surprises, the level of volatility, and what prices do after the announcement.

Volatility is the big factor, I think. Straddles, after all, rely on increasing volatility to make a profit. So does the trader want low volatility with room the rise, or high volatility with the energy to rise even higher?

That, my dear Watson, is the crux of the matter.

4/21 Forex

Two new breakouts in the currency pairs I follow.

New forex breakouts...

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
USD/CHF		29	apr20	SF0.8895	SF0.8987	0.0092	1.0%
USD/THB		39	apr21	฿29.833	฿29.923	0.090	0.3%

4/21 Indicators

Stocks

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
SPY
QQQ
VIX

Bonds

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
TLT
JNK

Tangibles

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
USO					apr1	$42.83	$41.98
GLD					apr5	$141.28	$139.72

Global

sym	chan	adx	traj	psar	bday	blevel	stop	2-day?
UUP					apr8	$21.62	$21.67
EEM					mar30	$48.21	$47.41

4/21 Almanac

On Thursday, April 21: Jobless claims, Philly Fed survey.

There are 30 days before May options expire, 58 the June and 86 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

4/20 Top Prospects

I found lots of breakouts today in my scan of stocks having penny-increment options down to volume of around 3 million shares, plus assorted exchange-traded funds, with an emphasis on the foreign markets, for diversification.

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
ADSK		11	apr20	$44.50	$43.52	0.98	2.2%
CHII+		19	apr20	$16.87	$16.78	0.16	1.0%
CHIM+		20	apr20	$14.71	$14.51	0.20	1.4%
CHIQ+		30	apr20	$18.70	$18.41	0.29	1.6%
EWS+		21	apr20	$14.14	$13.98	0.17	1.2%
EWY+*		22	apr20	$65.94	$66.40	1.07	1.6%
GIS		19	apr20	$37.55	$37.16	0.45	1.2%
IDX+		24	apr20	$30.82	$30.55	0.49	1.6%
JNJ		22	apr19	$61.50	$60.66	0.84	1.4%
JNPR		31	apr20	$45.01	$40.42	1.21	2.7%
KEY		13	apr20	$8.35	$8.55	0.20	2.4%
PVH		21	apr20	$67.26	$65.70	1.80	2.7%
THD+		37	apr19	$70.63	$69.56	0.99	1.4%
TIVO		27	apr20	$10.97	$10.35	0.62	5.7%
UUP+		16	apr20	$21.40	$21.26	0.14	0.7%
VIA/B		35	apr20	$47.87	$47.19	0.68	1.4%
XLP+		31	apr20	$30.90	$30.68	0.22	0.7%
XLV+		21	apr20	$34.01	$33.78	0.30	0.9%

Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

4/20 Earns

Update: BPOP has changed its earnings to April 25 before the open.

Tons of companies announcing earnings between today's close (April 20) and tomorrow's open (April 21).

The ones I've noted, taken from stocks having penny increment options, are AAPL, AMGN, AXP, BSX, QCOM, WDC, YUM, AMR, BAX, BBT, BPOP, F, GE, HON, MCD, NOK, NUE, SLB, UNH, VZ, WFT and XRX.

In selecting those I'm really interested in, I look at two things: Volatility and surprisiness.

I measure volatility by the 14-day average true range as a percentage of a recent price. I'm looking, generally, for 2% or more, the higher the better.

I measure surprisiness -- the tendency toward earnings surprises -- by the number of high-percentage surprises in the last five quarters. I count surprises of 50% and over, and of 20% and over. The more 50-percenters the better, but a good run of 20s can also be interesting.

So, out of the lot, I'm interested in BPOP, BSX, F, WDC, WFT and XRX.

BPOP, however, has a problem. It is priced at only $3 plus change, its option strikes are 50¢ apart, which is huge for such a low-priced stock, and the options don't have much open interest, meaning they have low liquidity.

I do note that there is a huge open interest on the May $3.50 calls -- more than 30,000 contracts -- and it is not offset by a similar bulge on the put side. So from that I assume there's an expectation for a positive earnings surprise.

Only one BPOP surprise has been positive the last five months. The rest have been negative. And nearly all have been huge: -384%, -953%, +2,521%!

So, if I were to play it, it would be as a call rather than a straddle.

The rest of my likes have very liquid options markets and I would play them as straddles.

(What I actually do is something I'll decide the last half hour of the trading day.)

4/20 Forex

Three pairs have moved to bull phase on breakouts above the 55-day price channel. They are AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD.

EUR/USD broke above the price channel and USD/CAD and USD/HUF below the channel, but with declining average directional indexes, there is as yet no phase change and the pairs remains neutral.

New forex breakouts...

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
AUD/USD		23	apr20	US$1.0582	US$1.0475	0.0107	1.0%
GBP/USD		13	apr20	US$1.5399	US$1.5252	0.0147	1.0%
NZD/USD		33	apr20	US$0.8002	US$0.7907	0.0095	1.2%
USD/CZK		16	apr20	Kčs16.662	Kčs0.778	0.1821	1.2%