Monday, April 25, 2011

4/26 Almanac

On Tuesday, April 26: Consumer Confidence.

There are 25 days before May options expire, 53 the June and 81 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.5% in a net move down of 3¢.

The day's extremes: Open $133.68, high $133.86, low $133.20, close $133.64.

SPY closed within the DeMark pivots after trading above their range. The next DeMark pivots are $133.09-$133.75.

In total, 2.2 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 19% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.32%, 46 basis points lower than the prior trading day. The main component of the steep decline was a large increase in yield, which remains negative, on the tax-indexed TIPS bonds ahead of Wednesday's monetary policy announcement.

Econ reports:

The conference Board reports on consumer confidence at 10 a.m. Eastern. This is an odd statistic, really. I mean, barring a catastrophic event, such as a layoff or pay cut, people are as confident as the news media tell them they should be. So, to my former colleagues in the news biz: Put on a smiley face! Write happy!! You owe it to the nation.

Standard & Poor's releases its monthly survey of home prices in 20 metro area at 9 a.m. This is my favorite of the housing stats, since in real-estate, especially, all markets are local.

Also out, two weekly retail reports, ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m., and the State Street investor confidence index at 10 a.m.

Treasury auctions 4-week bills at 11:30 a.m. and 2-year notes at 1 p.m.

No Fedsters are scheduled to make public appearances. The Federal Open Market Committee opens its meeting on Tuesday, but makes nothing public until Wednesday, when it will issue a statement at 12:30 p.m. Eastern, and Fed Chair Bernanke will hold an unprecedented news conference at 2:15 p.m.

An archive is available at the Federal Reserve web site, where the central bank often posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade May vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as July or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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