Thursday, April 14, 2011

4/15 Almanac

On Friday, April 15: Inflation, industrial production.

This is the last day April options will be traded. There are 36 days before May options expire, 65 the June and 92 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.1% in a net move up of 0.7%.

The day's extremes: Open $130.70, high $131.76, low $130.27, close $131.56.

SPY traded below the DeMark pivots before closing within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $130.92-$132.41.

In total, 2.6 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 10% more than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.79%, two basis points lower than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The consumer price index will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. This is the dreaded inflation report, and everyone will be watching it closely for the faintest hint of a price rise, on the assumption that the Federal Reserve will jump on it and stop the nascent recovery in its tracks. Or something like that.

The Fed reports on industrial production at 9:15 a.m. Up is good, down is scary.

Both the inflation and the production reports can be market movers.

Also out, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 a.m. (as goes New York, so goes the nation), Treasury international capital at 9 a.m. (how much of US are foreigners buying),and consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m. (I mean, how do you feel? Really?).

Fedsters: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans and Kansas City Fed Pres. Tom Hoenig make public appearances.

Evans has a vote in setting monetary policy. He took office under President George W. Bush. He came up through the Fed system.

Last year Hoenig was the foremost inflation hawk on the Fed’s monetary policy committee. Today, his term expired, he has neither a seat on nor a loud voice in the setting of money policy. He took office under President George H.W. Bush (Dad, not the kid). He came up through the Fed system.

The Federal Reserve often posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade May vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as June or later straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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