Monday, April 4, 2011

4/5 Almanac

On Tuesday, April 5: Money policy minutes.

There are 11 days before April options expire, 46 the May and 74 the June.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.6% in a net move down of 0.1%.

The day's extremes: Open $133.43, high $133.67, low $132.88, close $133.26.

SPY traded entirely above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $132.68-$133.47.

In total, 2.5 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 18% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.77%, two basis points higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, releases the minutes of its last meeting at 2 p.m. Eastern. Potentially, an explosive market mover. Potentially, a wet firecracker. Whichever, the day-traders will have fun.

The Institute of Supply Management comes out with its non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m., and there are two weekly retail reports, ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m.

Treasury auctions 4- and 52-week bills at 11:30 a.m. Eastern.

Fedsters: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser and Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart give speeches.

Kocherlakota and Plosser have votes in setting monetary policy.

Kocherlakota took office under President Barack Obama. His institutional ties are academic.

Plosser took office under President George W. Bush. His resume shows institutional ties to Chase Manhattan Bank, Eastman Kodak Co., Wyatt Co., ViaHealth Inc., RGS Energy Group Inc. and Chase Manhattan Bank, all in consulting or advisory capacities. He also co-chaired the Shadow Open Market Committee, which second-guessed the Fed’s monetary policy.

Lockhart is an alternate member of monetary committee and lacks a vote on policy. He also took office under President Bush. His resume shows institutional ties to Citigroup (then called Citicorp/Citibank), Heller Financial and the private equity firm Zephyr Management L.P.

The Federal Reserve often posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade May vertical and calendar spreads, and June or later straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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