Friday, April 22, 2011

4/22 Forex

With the U.S. markets closed for the day, I’m taking an opportunity to survey a broad list of currency pairs, not only for new price-channel breakouts but for existing bull and bear phases.

One reason for doing this is to move away from the dollar-centric pairs. These days, anyone trading the majors will be over-exposed to shorting the U.S. dollar, which is the main (negative) game in a town, or going long the Aussie, which is the other (positive) main game.

Cross-pairs and exotics bring some diversification to the mix, although with everything in the global economy so inter-connected, I’m not sure true diversification is possible, be the vehicle currencies, stocks, bonds or commodities. Well, baseball cards, maybe. Super Bowl tickets.

The stop in the table below, by the way, is calculated at the time of breakout.

For trading, once the price has moved away from the breakout level, I use a double-atr trailing stop: For a bull play, take the average true range, multiply by two and subtract it from the highest high since the position was opened. For a bear play, add twice the atr to the lowest low since opening.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
AUD/CAD  
19
apr13 C$1.0126 C$1.0942 0.0084 0.8%
AUD/HKD  
26
mar24 HK$7.9450 HK$7.8377 0.1073 1.4%
AUD/SGD  
28
apr21 S$1.3302 S$1.3186 0.0116 0.9%
AUD/THB  
21
apr6 ฿31.418 ฿31.113 0.305 1.0%
AUD/USD*  
26
mar24 US$1.0201 US$1.0088 0.0140 1.0%
CAD/HKD  
18
apr20 HK$8.1539 HK$8.0904 0.0635 0.8%
CAD/NOK  
12
apr8 Nkr5.6315 Nkr5.6862 0.0547 1.0%
CHF/HKD  
29
apr20 HK$8.7410 HK$8.6546 0.0864 1.0%
EUR/HKD  
21
apr20 HK$11.2876 HK$11.1773 0.1103 1.0%
EUR/USD*  
19
apr21 US$1.4547 US$1.4407 0.0140 1.0%
GBP/AUD  
24
mar28 A$1.5582 A$1.5377 0.0205 1.3%
GBP/CZK  
18
mar18 Kč29.671 Kč28.396 0.277 0.9%
GBP/HKD  
15
apr21 HK$12.7866 HK$12.6932 0.0934 0.7%
GBP/NOK  
20
mar24 Nkr8.9645 Nkr9.0684 0.1039 1.2%
GBP/NZD  
30
apr15 NZ$2.0149 NZ$2.0384 0.0235 1.2%
GBP/SEK  
14
apr20 Skr10.077 Skr10.200 0.123 1.2%
GBP/USD  
15
apr21 US$1.6427 US$1.6305 0.0122 0.7%
NZD/HKD  
39
apr11 HK$6.0931 HK$6.0320 0.0611 1.0%
NZD/USD  
34
apr20 US$0.8002 US$0.7907 0.0095 1.2%
SGD/HKD  
20
mar22 HK$6.1620 HK$6.1294 0.0326 0.5%
USD/CAD  
18
apr20 C$0.9526 C$0.9602 0.0076 0.8%
USD/CHF  
29
apr20 SF0.8895 SF0.8987 0.0092 1.0%
USD/CZK  
18
apr20 Kč16.662 Kč16.480 0.182 1.1%
USD/DKK  
18
apr20 Dkr5.1356 Dkr5.1873 0.0517 1.0%
USD/HKD  
17
apr21 HK$7.7654 HK$7.7712 0.0058 0.1%
USD/ILS  
34
apr21 ₪3.4003 ₪3.0771 0.0275 0.8%
USD/MXN  
23
mar31 Mex$11.8789 Mex$11.9722 0.0933 0.8%
USD/NOK  
21
apr20 Nkr5.3635 Nkr5.4360 0.0725 1.4%
USD/SEK  
12
apr20 Skr6.1765 Skr6.2631 0.0866 1.4%
USD/SGD  
18
mar22 S$1.2635 S$1.2702 0.0067 0.5%
USD/THB  
39
apr21 ฿29.833 ฿29.923 0.090 0.3%

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