Fresh stats about the employment situation
will be poublished Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, with a private payroll company giving a sneak preview with the ADP employment report
on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.
It is a very busy and significant week in economic reporting, beginning with personal income and outlays
on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index
on Tuesday at 10 a.m. and international trade
on Friday at 8:30 a.m.
But the biggest market mover of the week may well be the Federal Open Market Committee announcement
on Wednesday at 2 p.m., culminating a two-day session.
The conventional wisdom has been that the Fed will wait until after the elections to raise interest rates. But funnier things have happened, such as the head of the FBI issuing potentially election-altering insinuations about a presidential candidate less than two weeks before people vote on Nov. 8. Me, I'm placing no bets on interest rates either way.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread
between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply
, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The average hourly workweek in manufacturing
from the employment report
, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
from the factory orders report
, at 10 a.m. Thursday.
, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey
, at 10 a.m. Tuesday
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.
Book of Value: The Fine Art of Investing Wisely
by Anurag Sharma