Sunday, October 16, 2016

The Week Ahead: Prices, industry, housing, Beige Book

The consumer price index leads the list economic reporting this week. It will be published on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.

Three other reports -- one on industry and two on housing -- punctuate the trading week.

They are industrial production on Monday at 9:15 a.m. New York time, housing starts on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and existing home sales on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Reserve will release it's Beige Book describing economic conditions in each of its regions.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.

A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age
by Daniel J. Levitin

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Empire State manufacturing survey tracking conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

Tuesday: The consumer price index at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders' housing market index at 10 a.m. and Treasury's international capital flows report at 4 p.m.

Wednesday: Housing starts at 89:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey of conditions in the mid-Atlantic region, each at 8:30 a.m., existing home sales at 10 a.m. .and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.59%, up four basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 30-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

The week of the Beige Book release, at 2 p.m. Wednesday, always entices the Fed glitterati to the podium.

Fed Vice chair Stanley Fischer delivers an address on low interest rtes at the Economic Club of New York luncheon on Monday at 12:15 p.m.

Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo appears before the Columbia Law School Conference on the New Pedagogy of Financial Regulation on Friday at 10:15 a.m. His subject: Pedagogy and Scholarship in a  Post-Crisis World.

One other member of the Federal Open Market Committee speaks: New York Fed Pres. William Dudley once on Wednesday, at The Lotos Club at 7:45 p.m., and twice on Thursday at a conference on culture and behavior in he financial services industry. He will deliver welcoming remarks at 8:30 a.m. and host a panel at 9 a.m.

An FOMC alternate, Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, who has no seat on the FOMC this year, both speak on Wednesday.


Most of us seldom take the trouble to think. It is a troublesome and fatiguing process and often leads to uncomfortable conclusions. But crises and deadlocks when they occur have at least this advantage, that they force us to think.

--Jawaharlal Nehru, The Unity of India : Collected Writings, 1937-1940

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 16, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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