Saturday, October 1, 2016

The Week Ahead: Jobs, Manufacturing, Trade

Jobs week has rolled around again, this time covering the last month of the 3rd quarter.

Labor will release the employment situation report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, with the private-sector company ADP Payroll Services issuing a sneak preview, the ADP employment report, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Two other potential market movers hit the trading screens during the week; The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Wednesday.




Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream
by Andy Stern



Events arranged by day:

Monday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: None.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., international trade at 8:30 a.m., factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing survey, each at 10 a.m., and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.52%, up six basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills
  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
Notes
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
Bonds
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
TIPS
  • None.
Fedsters

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer delivers the keynote address to the Institute of International Finance annual membership meeting in Washington, D.C. on Friday at 10:30 a.m.

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks to the same event on Friday at 4 p.m., discussing an innovation that is roiling finance: Blockchain Technology. Think Bitcoin and its cousins.

Two other FOMC members take to the podium: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester and Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Friday. Both voted again keeping interest rates unchanged at the Sept. 21 FOMC meeting, part of an unusual three-member dissent.

Two FOMC alternates have scheduled public appearances: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Monday and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Tuesday

Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker, who has no seat on the FOMC this year, speaks on Monday and twice on Tuesday.

Thought

What fools call “wasting time” is most often the best investment.
--Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms (2010)


-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 1, 2016

References


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts


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Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com
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