Sunday, October 9, 2016

The Week Ahead: Holiday, producer prices, retail sales, FOMC minutes, Yellen

U.S. banks are closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday. Markets are open.

The trading week will see two major trading reports, both on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. They are the producer price index and retail sales.

The Federal Open Market Committee, on Wednesday at 2 p.m., will released minutes of its Sept. 21 meeting, a significant occasion because three members dissented from the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Dissents of such magnitude are rare in a body that prides itself on collegiality and consensus.

Fed. Chair Janet Yellen addresses the Boston Fed's annual research conference on Friday at 1:30 p.m. Her subject: Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. on Friday.

Progress and Confusion: The State of Macroeconomic Policy
by Olivier Blanchard et al.

Events arranged by day:

Wednesday: Job Openings and Labor Turnover at 10 a.m. and FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m.and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Producer prices and retails sales, each at 8:30 a.m., business inventories and consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m., and a Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech at 1:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.55%, up three basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

In addition to Chair Yellen, three other FOMC members will take to the podium: FOMC Vice Chairman William Dudley and Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George, both on Wednesday and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Friday.

Two FOMC alternates have scheduled appearances: Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Monday and  Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Thursday.


See your disappointments as good fortune. One plan's deflation is another's inflation.

    --Jean Cocteau, French poet, philosopher and film-maker, Diary of an Unknown (19880

    -- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 9, 2016


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