Saturday, October 22, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP plus other stuff

The initial 3rd quarter estimate of the ultimate "How're we doin'" report, gross domestic product, will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Earlier in the week three major reports will compete with earnings announcements as objects of praise or blame for the course of trading. They are international trade in goods on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and new home sales the same day at 10:30 a.m., and durable goods orders on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday at 10 a.m.

The Grid: The Fraying Wires Between Americans and Our Energy Future
by Gretchen Bakke

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash report at 9:45 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index of 20 metropolitan areas at 10 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday:  International trade in goods at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims and durable goods orders, each at 8:30 a.m.,  pending home sales at 10 a.m. .and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP at 8:30 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.61%, up two basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • None.
  • None.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell speaks on Treasury market settlement at the U.S. Treasury market conference at the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Monday at 2 p.m.

Other members of the Federal Open Market Committee taking to the podium are New York Fed Pres. Willian Dudley and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard  both on Monday

FOMC alternate Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans speaks on Monday.

Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, who has no seat on the FOMC this year, makes an appearance on Tuesday.


Without courage we cannot practice any other virtue with consistency. We can't be kind, true, mercifulgenerous, or honest.

--Maya Angelou (1988)

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 22, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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