7/1 Almanac

On Thursday, July 1: Manufacturing, construction, home deals in the works, cars 'n' trucks, jobless workers, natural gas.

There are 16 days before the July options expire, 51 the August and 79 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

FNM Watch: Good, Bad, Ugly

Not to get all happy-sappy over Fannie Mae, but FNM is moving in directions that suggest things might possibly will sort of be looking up maybe. Unless they don't, of course.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $0.35

6/30 Almanac

On Wednesday, June 30: Employment sneak preview.

There are 17 days before the July options expire, 52 the August and 80 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

AOD Watch: Little Engine That Couldn't

Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) is again doing a fine imitation of the Little Engine That Couldn't. For a second day it has opened lower that the prior day close, hit a new low, bumped up above the open, and then retraced for a small net gain.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $4.94

AOD Watch: A gain at last

A gain on the daily chart, at last!, for the Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD). It's the first close above the opening price since the closed-end fund began its 36% slide on June 21, in the midst of which the company lowered its dividend.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $5.06

6/29 Almanac

On Tuesday, June 29: Metro home prices, consumer confidence.

There are 18 days before the July options expire, 53 the August and 81 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

6/28 Almanac

On Monday, June 28: Don't save money! Save the economy! Shop 'till you drop!

There are 19 days before the July options expire, 54 the August and 82 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

AOD Watch: Still competitive?

Holders of Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) have but two questions to ask in light of yesterday's 54% reduction in the dividend: Is the new dividend rate competitive with alternative investments, and is the price of the exchange-traded fund every likely to return to prior levels?

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $5.17

6/25 Almanac

On Friday, June 25: GDP, sentimental consumers.

There are 22 days before the July options expire, 57 the August and 85 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

WEN Watch: Stunning rise, rumors abound

The flippers of square burgers and pilers of shaved beef, Wendy's / Arby's Group Inc. (WED) has traversed 8.5% low to high so far today on the second day of a huge volume spike that pushed shares traded even higher.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
WEN $4.23

SBUX Watch: Technicals turn bearish

The dudes who killed the 25¢ cup of (really bad) coffee, Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), is showing severe technical deterioration after an 18% run-up to $28.50 from the May 25 low of $24.07.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SBUX $26.80

The parabolic sar moved into bear mode today. So did the macd. Person's Proprietary Signal turned bearish on Tuesday. The stochastic has plunged below the 20-line into what is called oversold territory but which is a bear signal until the 20-line is crossed again on the way up.

F Watch: Ford moves to bear phase

Ford Motor Co. (F) moved to bear phase on the macd after 18 trading days on the bull side. The slide below the macd zero line was miniscule, so as is the way with tech signals, it might well reverse intraday.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
F $10.80

AOD Update: Dividend cut

Update:

The company announced at the close that it was dropping the dividend to 5.5¢ a month beginning with the July distribution. The June dividend was 12¢.


The close was $6.02, and in after-hours trading the price dropped to $5.70 (so far).

The lower dividend, annualized, is 12.11% of Wednesday's closing net asset value of $5.45 per share, 11.6% of the after-hours low (so far), and 11% of today's close.

My low "no-surprise" cut was to 8¢ per share, so this is lower than I expected. In the conference call, the company said that the dividend could be changed as events warrant. The 5.5¢ level was announced for three months: July, August and September.


Previous Post:

The Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) is treating Wednesday's low, $5.95, as support. The fund's managers plan a conference call at 4:15 p.m. Eastern.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $5.96

6/24 Almanac

On Thursday, June 24: Durable goods, jobless claims

There are 23 days before the July options expire, 58 the August and 86 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

AOD Watch

The Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) was in free fall for a second straight day. Traders and investors can only hope that there's a bungee cord attached.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $6.13

Today's decline, with an hour and 45 minutes left to trade, has covered 10.1% high to low, touching a new low of $5.95 on the three-month chart. Yesterday's decline covered 9.7% intra-day.

6/23 Almanac

On Wednesday, June 23: FOMC announcement.

There are 24 days before the July options expire, 59 the August and 87 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

FNM Watch

A nice two-day retracement for Fannie Mae (FNM), but where's the volume? Doctrine says that without an good increase in shares traded, the price increases can't be taken seriously. But looked at another way, volume is sort of -- well, high.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $0.42

NFLX Watch

The movie rent-by-mail company Netflix Inc. (NFLX) moved into bear phase today on the macd on the second day of retracement in a rise that began in October 2008. The chart shows it as a buying opportunity in the making.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
NFLX $116.96

AOD Watch

Today's 6%+ decline in the Alpine total Dynamic Dividend Fund(AOD) wipes out everything gained during the bull phase lasting seven trading days from June 11.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $6.80

The fund went ex-dividend today with a June 24 record date, so any trader hoping to collect this month's installment of the 21% annual dividend must hang on through Thursday.

6/22 Almanac

On Tuesday, June 22: Existing home sales.

There are 25 days before the July options expire, 60 the August and 88 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

KLAC Watch

KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) makes equipment that helps chip makers make chips and nanoelectronics makers make nanos (or something like that). The stock is trading more than 3% above Friday's close with volume up a lot for the third trading day in a row.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
KLAC $31.78

SIRI Watch

Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI), the satellite radio broadcaster, is trading 3.5% above Friday's close on higher volume and a collection of bull signals. The move is unbuttressed by news.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SIRI $1.08

AOD Week

In many ways Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) is a perfect avatar for the global economy. It has exposure everywhere. It is actively managed to capture both high-yield dividends and capital gains. It pays dividends monthly, avoiding the ex-dividend blues.

If this fund isn't making money consistently, then there is trouble. As goes AOD, so goes the world.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD (daily) $7.44

UNP Week

There's a lot to like in a stock such as the railroad Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) that every quarter or so for more than year has chugged up the slope to higher highs buttressed by higher lows. It ain't flashy, it's just the little stock that could, and I'll be happy 130% rise anytime I can get it.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
UNP (daily) $76.37

CAT Week

The construction and mining equipment manufacturer Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) has two things going for it: It stands to make money if China allows its currency to be more friendly to imports, and Jim Cramer's on again off again love affair with CAT is on again.

I mean, if a company has both China and Cramer on its side, happy days must surely lie ahead.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CAT (daily) $65.85

FITB Week

The financial services company First Third Bancorp (FITB), by creeping up for a second straight week on rising volume, is setting up to make a run past $16 to a higher high in the uptrend that began in February 2009, the month when markets began to recover from the collapse of capitalist finance in 2007/08.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FITB (daily) $13.58

MRK Week

The pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) has moved above the 13- and 26-week moving averages on the second week of rising volume.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
MRK (daily) $35.67

MU Week

Micron Technology Inc. (MU) burst through the 13-week and 26-week moving averages with a 13.9% intra-day move and 17% increase in volume.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
MU (daily) $10.00

6/21 Almanac

On Monday, June 21: No econ reports.

There are 26 days before the July options expire, 61 the August and 89 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

AIB Watch

Dublin-based Allied Irish Banks PLC (AIB) is trading more than 9% above Thursday's close with volume running nearly 40% (so far) above the prior day's. There was no company-specific news to buttress the price leap; Irish regulators say they'll be intensifying bank supervision.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AIB $2.84

BP Watch

The UK-headquartered oil giant BP P.L.C. (BP), hard pressed politically as it tries to control a particularly nasty oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, is showing bull phase on the macd for the first time since April 23

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
BP $31.74

6/18 Forex

No phase switches by Person's Proprietary Signal on the 16 most heavily traded currency pairs.

6/18 Almanac

On Friday, June 18: Quadruple Witching Day. Scary!!

June options expire today, and there are 30 days before the July options expire and 65 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

TLT Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks long-term bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury, iShares Trust Barclay's 20-plus Year Treasuries (TLT), is showing bull phase on the Person's Proprietary Signal with a volume spike that is so far running about 10% above Wednesday's.

Even so, there are better places to park money.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
TLT $98.11

RNN Watch

Rexahn Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RNN) is trading 18% above Wednesday's close on the second daily volume spike in a row. Today's price rise broke through the 20-day simple moving average and has put the stock within an area of resistance recorded in late April and early May.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
RNN $1.76

6/17 Forex

Phase switches on three currency pairs by Person's Proprietary Signal. Two others switch phase on the parabolic sar, a signaler that often leads the pps by a day or so.

The pps phase switches, all to bear, are on USD/JPY, AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF.

The psar switches, to the bull side, are on EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP. Those signals will get the full write-up when (if?) the pps signal occurs.

FNM Watch: Way Forward

The government-controlled mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNM) having made a quantum jump to a lower level, what does history and the signals tell us as traders about the way forward?

FNM halted today's runaway slide at 41¢, a resistance level tested repeatedly in February and March of last year. The stock's ultimate close, at 56¢, is at a support level that held in February 2009 and that stands just below support in December 2008.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $0.56

That is a long way of saying that the FNM decline, on news it would delist from the NYSE, may have been a selling panic, but it was one molded by the stock's trading history.

6/17 Almanac

On Thursday, June 17: Consumer prices, jobless claims, leading indicators.

There are 2 days before the June options expire, 30 the July and 65 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

FNM Watch

It is in the nature of policy surprises that, like tsunami, they come with little warning. And so it was with the announcement by Fannie Mae (FNM) that it would no longer list its shares on the the major exchanges.

The price opened this morning at 91¢ -- down a penny from Tuesday's close -- and in 35 minutes dropped to 50¢, retraced up to 56¢, and then continued its panic dive down to (so far) 41¢.

Nice ride. And totally unjustified by financial fact.

6/16 Forex

There are no phase switches this morning by Person's Proprietary Signal on the 16 currency pairs that track.

6/16 Almanac

On Wednesday, June 16: Housing starts, producer prices, industrial production. Plus Big Ben!

There are 3 days before the June options expire, 31 the July and 66 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

QQQQ Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) flipped to bull phase Monday on Person's Proprietary Signal. This posting uses the same analysis that I use with forex, and I'll be applying it to a small set of exchange-traded funds going forward.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
QQQQ $46.65

DELL Watch

Computer maker Dell Inc. (DELL) rose 6.5% intra-day on a 50%+ volume spike and a collection of bull-phase signals.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
DELL $14.04

MU Watch

Memory maker Micron Technology Inc. (MU) has risen 8% intraday with about an hour left before the close on volume running more than 40% above Monday's. There is no news to account for the good news (for bulls, at least).

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
MU $9.64

CGR Watch

The Canadian minerals company Claude Resources Inc. (CGR) is up 2.7% intraday on a volume spike that so far, with 90 minutes remaining before the close, is running three times Monday's volume. The company on Monday released happy stats on the performance of its major gold mine.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CGR $1.14

ABK Watch

Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK), the insurer of financial products that was a major casualty of the 2007/2008 collapse, is trading up today for a second day in a row. But don't break out the celebratory fireworks yet.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
ABK $0.90

6/15 Forex

There are no new phase switches by Person's Proprietary Signal on the 16 currency pairs that I follow.

6/15 Almanac

On Tuesday, June 15: International capital, housing market index

There are 4 days before the June options expire, 32 the July and 67 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

DAL Watch

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) has shown a price rise on a volume increase. It's the third volume spike in the a week, but two of them came with price declines.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
DAL $13.80

SNDK Watch

Tech company SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) gapped up sharply this morning and is trading more than 5.5% above the prior close, with a couple of bull phase signals to buttress the case. Volume jumped to the highest (so far) since May 26.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SNDK $47.26

MGM Watch

The entertainment conglomerate MGM Mirage (MGM) gapped up today and is trading more than 4% above the prior close on volume that so far is 80% above Friday's with 90 minutes of trading left today.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
MGM $12.06

AOD Watch

The Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) is trading up more than a percent and a half over the prior close on volume that will be double Friday's by the time the markets close.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $7.03

Forex: Euro on the move

The euro is on the move this morning, switching Person's Proprietary Signal to bull phase against three other currencies. The pound also moved to bull phase against the yen.

The pairs are: EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY.

6/14 Almanac

On Monday, June 14: Zip, nada, nuthin'.

There are 5 days before the June options expire, 33 the July and 68 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

GLW Watch

The tech company Corning Inc. (GLW) is showing a volume spike approaching 25% on a 5.8% price rise low to high. The price has retreated and is trading 2% above the opening.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
GLW $18.04

6/11 Forex

No new Person's Proprietary Signal phase changes on the 16 currency pairs I follow. Nothing happening here.

BP Watch

The oil-spill guys BP p.l.c. (BP) gapped up today, trading around 3% above Thursday's close. However, volume was sharply down from the prior day, erasing any credence the rise might have.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
BP $33.71

TCX Watch

The internet services company Tucows Inc. (TCX) is showing a huge volume spike today with no change in price. The company's CEO yesterday bought 26,900 shares. Speculators, no doubt, think he must have a good reason for doing that.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
TCX $0.68

6/11 Almanac

On Friday, June 11: Retail sales.

There are 8 days before the June options expire, 36 the July and 71 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

BP Watch

"BP Jumps", one headline said. The headline should read, "BP falls through key support; no end in sight".

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
BP $32.16

There was a jump, but a sorry jump it is, of the sort that's akin to the "capping" of the oil flow in the Gulf. Although trading higher than Wednesday's close, (BP) nears the close with lower volume and a net trading range of about one-tenth of one percent.

Indeed, BP yesterday broke below the $35 support level, a level that has been tested twice as support and once as resistance in the past 20 years.

This is not a stock moving up, or even thinking of doing so. Someday, when the well is capped and the costs are known, maybe. But not yet.

GLD Watch

Larry Kudlow thinks the "soaring" price of gold is in response to President Obama's pitching of Medicare rebates yesterday ("budget busting benefits for the elderly"), or maybe Treasury's projections of huge increases in the U.S. debt by 2015.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
GLD $119.68

The only problem is, near-term gold has been dropping, not soaring, the last three days, which is the timeframe of Kudlow's news surprises.

APP Watch

American Apparel Inc. (APP) is showing a volume spike this morning with very little price movement compared to most days the past few weeks.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
APP $1.24

6/10 Forex

The Person's Proprietary Signals is showing a phase switch on five currency pairs. To the bull side: AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD. The the bear side: USD/CHF. The mid, upper and lower levels are the monthly Person's Pivots for June.

EEM Watch

The emerging markets exchange-traded fund (EEM) is showing bull phase on Person's Proprieatary Signal, bringing the major indicators back to unanimity for the first time in four days.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
EEM $38.30

USO Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks oil, (USO), is showing bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal as the price breaks above resistance that has been tested five times in nine trading days.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
USO $34.84

SPY Watch

The S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY) has moved to bull phase on the macd as the price hits a higher high and, so far, a higher low for the second day in a row.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $108.38

6/10 Almanac

On Thursday, June 10: International trade.

There are 9 days before the June options expire, 37 the July and 72 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

VIA Watch

The entertainment company Viacom Inc.'s Class B shares (VIA/B) have covered 4.6% low to high in today's sharp rise accompanied by a volume spoke that's approaching 20% above the prior day's. The macd switched to bull phase.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
VIA/B $33.32

Forex USD/CHF

The U.S. dollar-Swiss franc currency pair (USD/CHF) switched to bear phase on Persons' Proprietary Signal as the intraday price tumbled 0.9% high to low.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SF1.1455

ABK Watch

Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) broke well below its range of the past week after the company warned that a default was possible "as early as the second quarter of 2010." The stock is trading nearly 20% below Tuesday's close.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
ABK $0.86

6/9 Almanac

On Wednesday, June 9: Oil inventories, Bernanke testimony.

There are 10 days before the June options expire, 38 the July and 73 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

ABK Watch

Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK), despite two straight days of large intraday declines, is technically in an uptrend. The stock closed up 3.9% from Monday.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
ABK $1.07

At close

AMZN Watch

The books-and-whatever online superstore Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN) switched to bear phase on the macd after seven trading days on the bull side. The bear signal is in line with the present trend, which has seen the price decline by 23.4% since April 22.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AMZN $$118.80

At 1:32 p.m. Eastern

Forex GBP/CHF

The British pound-Swiss franc currency pair (GBP/CHF) has moved to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal after after 14 days in bull territory. The phase switch was accompanied by a 2% intraday decline, measured high to low.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
GBP/CHF SF1.6562

At 10:58 a.m. Eastern

Forex USD/JPY

The dollar-yen currency pair (USD/JPY) has switched to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal after eight bull-phase days that saw the price rise by 4.5%.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
USD/JPY ¥90.98

At 10:46 a.m. Eastern

KRY Watch

The Canadian mining company Crystalex International Corp. (KRY), which develops gold fields in Venezuela, extended Monday's huge decline, as traders decided that a gold-project partnership with a Chinese company wasn't quite as shiny as it first seemed.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
KRY $0.47

At 10:30 a.m. Eastern

6/8 Almanac

On Tuesday, June 8: Minor retail sales (don't care).

There are 11 days before the June options expire, 39 the July and 74 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

TIVO: The Batman Pattern

Actually, if you look at TIVO on a six-month candlestick chart, it sort of looks like Batman's cowl seen backlit: Two pointy ears and a sort-of bumpy top of B'man's head.

The Batman Pattern, a new addition to the arsenal of technical analysis tools, joining the double top and the head and shoulders. You saw it here first.

I wrote a detailed analysis of TIVO earlier today.

GLD Watch

Gold does not glitter for me. Nor does its avatar, the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (GLD), which is trading nearly 2% above Friday's close with a switch to bull phase on the macd for the first time since May 18.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
GLD $121.37

At 2:15 p.m. Eastern

TIVO Watch

The TV-watching time-shifting company TiVo Inc. (TIVO) has moved to bull phase on the macd after 25 days in the bear column. The phase switch comes among rumors of a possible takeover.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
TIVO $8.42

At 2:00 p.m. Eastern

JNK Watch

SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond exchange-traded fund (JNK), which tracks corporate junk bonds, has strengthened its bull phase on the macd. The improved signal comes on a price increase that so far has failed to break above the trading range of the past week.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $37.37

At 1:44 p.m. Eastern

AOD Watch

The high-yield exchange-traded fund Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) has simultaneously moved to bull phase on the macd and bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal. What's with that?

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $6.61

At 1:21 p.m. Eastern

ABK Watch

The bottom has dropped out of the bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK), with the stock trading today at about 10% below Friday's close. The decline came on reports Friday that credit default swaps insured by Ambac are worth 20 cents on the dollar.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
ABK $1.03

At 1:05 p.m. Eastern

FNM Watch

The government-controlled mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNM) has declined 3.2% intraday and is trading 1.8% below Friday's close.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $0.91

At 12:48 p.m. Eastern

6/7 Forex

To the left, a 20-year monthly chart of the EUR/USD, tracking the euro against the U.S. dollar.

News reports for weeks have been making a thing of the euro's decline. And yes, it has been swift and nervous-making.

However, it can also be seen a a reversion to the normal. From 1990 to 2006 the euro traded in or below the range of its price over May and June. At its low points in 2000 and 2001, the euro was worth less than 85¢ U.S.

6/7 Morningline

All indicators are trading little changed from Friday's close. Even the euro, which is the subject of scare ledes in the media (Four year low!!), is down less than 0.4% against the dollar early in the U.S. market day.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $106.79
VIX 35.69
TLT $97.85

At 9:44 a.m. Eastern

6/7 Almanac

On Monday, June 7: Consumer (yawn!) credit.

There are 12 days before the June options expire, 40 the July and 75 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

MGM Update

MGM has moved back to bear phase on the macd. See my earlier posting.

WEN Update

WEN has moved back into bear phase on the macd. See my earlier posting.

6/4 Forex Update

AUD/USD continues to show bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal. See this morning's posting.

New bear phases as the U.S. trading day draws to a close: AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and NZD/USD.

WEN Watch

The restaurant company Wendy's/Arby's Group Inc. (WEN) moved into bull phase on the macd today, but just barely. The phase switch comes after a 25% decline from late April.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
WEN $4.41

At 12:42 p.m. Eastern

BP plc Watch

There's a Facebook page called "Boycott BP", but for traders like us, the question, "When do we buy?"

The oil company BP plc (BP) has seen its stock price fall to less than half it's April 15 value since a the offshore drilling disaster in the Gulf Mexico.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
BP $37.63

At 12:12 p.m. Eastern

MGM Watch

The casinos and entertainment company MGM Mirage (MGM) has moved into bull phase on the macd, a signal that runs counter to a deep downtrend that began in late April.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
MGM $12.38

At 11:41 a.m. Eastern

AOD Watch

The Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD), a high-yield, high-risk place to park money, is showing bull phase on the macd after a 30-trading-day sojourn into bear territory that saw the price decline by 35.5%

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $6.81

At 11:20 a.m. Eastern

6/4 Forex: AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is showing bear phase against the U.S. dollar on Person's Proprietary Signal.

The signal has been accompanied by an intra-day decline of the AUD/USD currency pair that traversed 2.4% high to low. The price opened above the pps moving averages and then fell below.

6/4 Morningline

I woke up this morning to the cheery sound of NPR's "Morning Edition" (which starts broadcasting at 3 a.m. here in Portland, Oregon), saying that the government's employment report would be out in a few hours and good news was expected.

Oops.

6/4 Almanac

On Friday, June 4: Unemployment.

There are 15 days before the June options expire, 43 the July and 78 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

ABK Watch

The bond-insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) is showing bull phase on the macd after a bearish run on the signal that lasted 24 days.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
ABK $1.20

At 3:05 p.m. Eastern

FNM Watch

The government-controlled mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNM) moved into bull phase on the macd, a signal that has shown various degrees of persistance when applied to this once major issue now sunk to the level of penny stock.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $0.94

At 2:54 p.m. Eastern

SBUX Watch

The King of the Latté, Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) has moved into bull phase on the macd, but with an unusual degree of ambiguity on that most unambiguous of signals.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SBUX $26.54

At 1:57 p.m. Eastern

ORCL Watch

The database software company Oracle Corp. (ORCL) has moved to bull phase on the macd as it recovers from a 19.1% decline from mid-April to late May.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
ORCL $22.78

At 1:38 p.m. Eastern

SPY Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 (SPY) moved into bull phase on the macd, trading Person's Proprietary Signal by five days but preceding the parabolic sar, which remains bearish. The big picture has the makings of head-and-shoulders pattern.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $109.90

At 1:20 p.m. Eastern

RAD Watch

The pharmacy chain Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) has moved into bull phase on the macd, with the signal's fast moving average crossing above the slow moving average to add punch to the bullishness.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
RAD $1.17

At 12:38 p.m. Eastern

6/3 Forex

No phase switches on Person's Proprietary Signal among the 16 currency pairs I track.

6/3 Morningline

Blue-chip stocks and high-yield corporate debt inched into bull phase on the macd in early indicators trading marked by little movement off the opening prices. If the phase shifts stand at the end of the day, then they will signal a near-term reversal of the decline since late April.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $110.77
VIX 29.46
TLT $95.22

At 9:50 a.m. Eastern

Stocks up, along with junk bonds, emerging markets and the dollar. Treasury long-term bonds down, along with gold and oil.

6/3 Almanac

On Thursday, June 3: Jobless claims, productivity, energy inventories.

There are 16 days before the June options expire, 44 the July and 79 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

6/2 Forex: EUR/JPY

The euro has moved into bull phase against the Japanese yen after falling through bear mode since April 27.

The new flag from Person's Proprietary Signal on the EUR/JPY currency pair was buttressed by a sharp price increase that has traversed 2.8% low to high so far today.

FNM Watch

The government-controlled mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNM) dropped down to well below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line, a level that has provided firm support and challenging resistance for the past few weeks.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $0.93

At 12:44 p.m. Eastern

ABK Watch

The bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) opened above the 20-day simple moving average for the first time since April 30 but pulled below that level in morning trading. ABK began showing bull signals last Friday as it pushed above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
ABK $1.21

At 12:29 p.m. Eastern

6/2 Forex

There are no phase switches by Person's Proprietary Signal on the 16 forex currency pairs that I track.

6/2 Morningline: Other Indicators

Other indicators are a mixed bag this morning: High-yield corporate debt, emerging markets, oil and the yen up, gold and the euro down.

The macd on emerging markets and on the yen against the U.S. dollar each crossed the zero line into bull territory this morning.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
JNK $37.31
GLD $119.36
USO $33.45
EEM $37.97
EUR/USD $1.2196
USD/JPY ¥92.18

At 10:50 a.m. Eastern

6/2 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

Blue chip stocks are trading narrowly at the open, at price levels in the lower half of yesterday's range. The S&P500 exchange-traded fund, SPY, is shoiwng an early bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal, after three days in bull phase.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $107.66
VIX 34.47
TLT $97.16

At 9:55 a.m. Eastern

The fear index (VIX) is down 3% from yesterday's close, which is bullish for stocks.

Treasury long-term bonds are trading narrowly in the upper half of yesterday's range, with the macd in bear territory for a second straight day.

6/2 Almanac

On Wednesday, June 2: Motor vehicle sales, pending home sales.

There are 17 days before the June options expire, 45 the July and 80 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

INTC Watch Update

The macd switch to bull phase that showed this morning on INTC has disappeared. The macd line is at a shade less than 0.2 below the zero line.

The signaler is trending upward, so my earlier analysis stands. But the actual switch to bull phase has yet to occur.

6/1 Forex Update

An update on today's forex. Three pairs were showing Cheshire Cat behavior on Person's Proprietary Signal -- it would appear for awhile, and then disappear (leaving nothing but grin?).

AUD/NZD is shoiwng a bear signal at this point.

EUR/CAD and USD/CHF are not showing a pps signal, suggesting the morning phase shifts were ghosts.

Find my earlier posting here.

EEM Watch

The iShares Trust MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (EEM), which tracks countries on the growth fast-track, is showing bull phase on the macd, emerging from bearishness for the first time since April 16.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
EEM $38.09

At 2:30 p.m. Eastern

When I hear the phrase "emerging markets", I think of markets that are -- well, emerging. But that's not the case with EEM, which more properly should be called "emerged markets that have yet to develop arteriosclerosis".

BMY Watch

The pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) has moved to bull phase on the macd, a posture confirmed by Person's Proprietary Signal but not by the parabolic sar.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
BMY $23.32

At 2:10 p.m. Eastern

INTC Watch

Intel Corp. (INTC) has moved into bull phase on the macd after 22 trading days on the bear side. The phase switch is confirmed by Person's Proprietary Signal, but not by the parabolic sar.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
INTC $21.52

At 1:50 p.m. Eastern

CXM Watch

Cardium Therapeutics Inc. (CXM), a medical technology company focused on heart disease and strokes, moved into bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal on Friday, but so far the price action has been disappointing.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
CXM $0.47

At 1:30 p.m. Eastern

AOD Watch

The high-yield Alpine Total Dynamic Fund (AOD) is showing bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal, as the major technical tools continue to point toward further recovery to the upside.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $6.97

At 9:50 a.m. Eastern

The bull signal, however, is unstable -- it is ghosting, disappearing and reappearing, like the Cheshire Cat in Alice, so it's impossible at this point to give it much credence.

ABK Watch

Bond-insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) has follows through nicely today on Friday's switches to bull phase. The stock is trading more than 8% above Friday's close.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
ABK $1.30

At 10:30 a.m. Eastern

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) is showing bull phase on the macd for the first time since April 27. The phase switch was unconfirmed by any directional price action. The stock is trading narrowly a few cents below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line of 99¢.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $0.96

At 10:24 a.m. Eastern

The macd phase switch aligns on the bull side all of the major technical signals that I follow. The parabolic sar moved to bull phase on Friday, and Person's Proprietary Signal did the same a day earlier, on Thursday.