AOD Watch: A gain at last

A gain on the daily chart, at last!, for the Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD). It's the first close above the opening price since the closed-end fund began its 36% slide on June 21, in the midst of which the company lowered its dividend.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $5.06

The bad news is, the close was below Friday's close, the price hit a new low, and the price rise was at volume 34% lower than on Friday.

So there is no real reason for happy talk about AOD, unless you're a dividend chaser with far horizon and a positive love of risk.

What, exactly, do today's prices tell us?

The net rise was from $5.02 to $5.06, or 0.8%, a respectable step up. The low was $4.86, and the high was $5.10, a range of 4.9%, also quite respectable.

The intra-day trend was sideways. The high of the day was set just before the close and the first half hour of trading. The sideways range was $4.97 to $5.07, and after-hours trading sent the price down to $5.00.

The dividend payout will be 66¢ annualized for July, August and September. Before the divdend was lowered, the annualized rate was about 20%.

So:

• Today's high and close imply a 13% dividend.
• Today's low implies 13.6%
• The after-hours low implies 13.2%

With this pricing, the market is saying that AOD is riskier than domestic U.S. corporate junk bonds (JNK), which pay about 10%, but less risky than a leading real-estate investment trust, NLY, which pays nearly 16%.

The lower volume can be read is uncertainty, as a signal that the hot money that wants out has most gotten out, or as the pre-holiday I-don't-really-care-so-much-so-don't-bother-me trader syndrome. Sunday is the 4th of July, and Monday is a market holiday. Yay!

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Abbreviations:

• psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
• adx - Average Directional Index
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
• ma20 - 20-day moving average
• macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
• sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.