6/17 Forex

Phase switches on three currency pairs by Person's Proprietary Signal. Two others switch phase on the parabolic sar, a signaler that often leads the pps by a day or so.

The pps phase switches, all to bear, are on USD/JPY, AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF.

The psar switches, to the bull side, are on EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP. Those signals will get the full write-up when (if?) the pps signal occurs.


USD/JPY


The phase switch comes on a 1% decline today that began on the monthly pivot midline and carried the price well below that level.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
USD/JPY ¥90.56

The USD/JPY pair has been trading in a sideways range since October 2009, with ¥95 at the upper end and ¥88 at the lower, with one breakdown to ¥85. However, the pattern can also be seen as setting a series of (barely) higher highs and (scarcely) higher lows.

The narrowing of the range in the past month and a half can be interpreted as a triangle pattern, possibly a continuation to the downside of the dollar's 2008 decline. The large May 6 swing would be the base of the triangle, covering ¥6.01.

June Pivot Levels

• ¥94.83, +4.7% (upper)
• ¥91.40, +0.9% (midline)
• ¥90.56 <== You are here.
• ¥84.38, -6.8% (lower)

AUD/NZD

The AUD/NZD pair has been trending sideways since late May after a decline beginning in ealy April.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2311

June Pivot Levels

• NZ$1.2720, +3.3% (upper)
• NZ$1.2423, +0.9% (midline)
• NZ$1.2311 <== You are here.
• NZ$1.1828, -3.9% (lower)

Today's 0.8% decline pierced the pps moving averages. The pair is trading below the Person's Pivots midline.

The recent decline from April is a retracement of a major upward move in the value of the Australian dollar against its New Zealand counterpart that began in 2006.




EUR/CHF

The euro has declined as much as 1.4% since midnight Eastern U.S. time, a move that began at the pps moving averages and moved to within reach of the lower line of the monthly Person's Pivots.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
EUR/CHF SF1.3753

The current low today is about the same as that seven days earlier, so no new ground has yet been broken here.
 
June Pivot Levels

• SF1.4531, +5.7% (upper)
• SF1.4265, +3.7% (midline)
• SF <== You are here.
• SF1.3740, -0.1% (lower)

The euro in fact has been declining against the Swiss franc since May 1992, and the most recent downswing began in October 2007.

So the bias of this pair must be bearish, and contrary significant countervailing evidence, a switch to bear phase must be taken seriously by prudent traders.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Abbreviations:

• psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
• adx - Average Directional Index
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
• ma20 - 20-day moving average
• macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
• sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.