Tuesday, June 8, 2010

ABK Watch

Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK), despite two straight days of large intraday declines, is technically in an uptrend. The stock closed up 3.9% from Monday.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
ABK $1.07
At close

The mortgage insurance company, one of the walking wounded of the global financial collapse and one of the most brisky traded stocks below $2 (55 million shares), dropped 18.9% intra-day today, and 13.7% on Monday.

However, the highs were $1.27 today and $1.17 on Monday; the lows $1.03 today and $1.01 on Monday. That's a higher high and a higher low, that's the definition of an uptrend.

Penny stocks like ABK trade in large percentage ranges -- it's part of the baggage of having a low price. The stocks has been moving pretty much sideways for seven trading days.

The signals are mixed: Bear phase kicked in on Person's Proprietary Signal on Monday,but the parabolic sar remains in bull phase, as does the macd. The fast stochastic is rising through the neutral zone after three days of decline.

Reversal Levels
  • $1.34, +26.4% (swing high)
  • $1.17, +10. (20-day moving average)
  • $1.13, +6.6% (Fib 78.6%)
  • $1.07 <== You are here.
  • $0.83, -21.7% (swing low)
  • $0.51, -51.9% (Fib 100%)

Fundamentals

ABK showed a profit the last quarter of 2009, after steep losses the first three quarters of the years. It's digging out from under the collapse of finance. Slowly, as are all the casualties.


The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we remerge from the wreckage.



Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Abbreviations:

  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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