SPY Watch

The S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY) has moved to bull phase on the macd as the price hits a higher high and, so far, a higher low for the second day in a row.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $108.38

Yesterday's higher high, however, was accompanied by a sharp drop in volume, and the parabolic sar and Person's Proprietary Signal remain in bear phase.

The signal would be credible if, at the end of the day, volume on the etf exceeded 400 million shares.

Reversal Levels

• $117.62, +8.5%
• $109.58, +1.1%
• $108.38 <== You are here.
• $104.65, -3.4%

The 20-day simple moving average is at $109.47 and pointing down. A break above $110 on a volume spike would be strong confirmation of a near-term bull trend.

Longer-term, SPY has been stuck in a sideways zigzag from the late-1990s onward, ranging between about $70 on the downside and $160 on the upside. The rise beginning in March 2009, from $67.51, peaked in April this year at $122.12, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Abbreviations:

• psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
• adx - Average Directional Index
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
• ma20 - 20-day moving average
• macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
• sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.