Tuesday, May 31, 2011

6/1 Almanac

On Wednesday, June 1: Manufacturing index.

There are 17 trading days before the June options expire, 45 the July, 80 the August and 108 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

5/31 Top Prospects

One breakout beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
SLM*  
20
may31 $16.86 $16.46 0.40 2.4%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

QCOM is within 1¢ of breaking out to the bullside. If it does break out today, the analysis will look like this:

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
QCOM*  
15
may31 $58.46 $57.33 1.13 1.9%

When considering bull trades, I like the financials for both SLM and QCOM.

5/31 Indicators

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 parabolic sar signals turns bullish after weeks on the bear side (SPY, QQQ).

Crude oil’s parabolic sar turns bullish, but the strength of the trend (adx) drops below 30 (US0).

Dollar turns bearish on the macd in trading against a basket of other currencies (UUP).

Emerging markets also turn bullish on the macd (EEM).

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
 
QQQ  
 
VIX  
 

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
 
JNK  
 

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
 
GLD  
 

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
 
EEM  
 

5/31 Forex

Two new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow. AUD and CHF have declined sharply, suggesting they are no longer the flavors of the month.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
GBP/THB  
16
may31 ฿49.96 ฿49.60 0.36 0.7%
NZD/JPY*  
18
may31 ¥66.700 ¥65.717 0.983 1.5%

GBP/THB’s bull breakout runs counter to the pair’s short carry bias of more than 200 basis points.

NZD/JPY is aligned with a long carry bias exceeding 250 basis points.

Monday, May 30, 2011

5/30 Forex

There are no new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow. New York and London are closed for holidays.

Monday's Schedule

U.S. markets are closed today for Memorial Day, and U.K. markets, for the Spring Bank Holiday.

I won't file Indicators or Top Prospects today.

Although New York and London are closed, other money centers are trading, and I shall file results of my scan of currencies shortly.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Monday's Schedule

Monday, May 30, is a holiday in the United States and the United Kingdom. Banks and markets in New York, Chicago and London will be closed.

However, other money centers will be open, currencies will trade, and I'll post my daily Forex analysis Monday at the usual time (around 9:30 or 10 a.m. Eastern).

Indicators, Top Prospects and the Almanac won't be filed on Monday.

5/31 Almanac

On Monday, May 30: U.S. markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

On Tuesday, May 31: Consumer confidence.

There are 18 trading days before the June options expire, 46 the July, 81 the August and 109 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

5/27 Top Prospects

Two breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
AFL  
29
may27 $48.00 $49.27 1.27 2.7%
NTAP  
22
may26 $55.18 $53.67 1.51 2.7%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

SLM is within 1¢ of breaking out to the bullside but with a declining average directional index (adx). So, under my rules, a breakout would be disallowed for trading. The current breakout level is $16.86.

5/27 Indicators

Volatility on the S&P 500 (the VIX, or the fear index) turned bearish on both the parabolic sar and the macd. The price channel phase has been neutral since May 5. A falling VIX usually coincides or proceeds rising stocks.

Emerging markets (EEM) turned bullish on the parabolic sar. the price channel phase is neutral.

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
 
QQQ  
 
VIX  
 

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
 
JNK  
 

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
 
GLD  
 

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
 
EEM  
 

Today's Closes

The U.S. bond markets will close at 2 p.m. Eastern. The stock markets will continue trading until the normal closing time, 4 p.m. Eastern (plus the after-hours session). Forex, of course, like the tide, stops for no holiday.

5/27 Forex

Eight new breakouts (and re-breakouts after sharp pullbacks) among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
AUD/CAD*  
16
may27 C$1.0443 C$1.0355 0.0088 0.8%
CHF/JPY  
18
may27 ¥94.315 ¥93.180 1.135 1.2%
CHF/HUF  
37
may26 Ft220.63 Ft217.24 3.39 1.5%
CHF/SGD  
26
may27 S$1.4406 S$1.4259 0.0147 1.0%
GBP/CAD  
12
may27 C$1.6081 C$1.5954 0.0127 0.8%
GBP/CHF  
31
may27 SFr1.4109 SFr1.4253 0.0144 1.0%
NZD/USD  
19
may27 US$0.8120 US$0.8010 0.0110 1.4%
USD/CHF  
21
may27 SFr0.8552 SFr0.8657 0.0105 1.2%

AUD/CAD, CHF/SGD are re-breakouts after large pullbacks amid ongoing bull phases, and GBP/CHF, USD/CHF amid bear phases.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Top Prospects -- Why no breakouts?

A reader has expressed incredulity over my not finding any breakouts in my stock scan today. "Look at thus-and-so," he writes.

It's a reasonable question. There are a lot of stocks out there, and even this close to a holiday, it seems incredible that none were on the move.

Yet, I stand by my claim in Thursday's Top Prospects: "... there are no breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened."

Any trader faces an embarrassment of riches: There are always more potential trades than there is money to pay for them. The trader has to pick and choose.

In setting up my trading methods, I've tried to find ways of choosing that also contribute to giving me an edge. I don't know the future. No trader does. So anything that gives me some slight advantage is worth seeking out.

The first element in my toolkit for selecting trades is the universe of stocks that I look at. It's possible to find platforms that will search through every stock traded and give you a list of 50 possible trades.

That's not my style. I limit my stock scan to issues that are on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange penny-increment list.

It used to be that options prices moved in increments of a nickel or dime. The CBOE penny-increment program sought to reduce the granularity to as little as a cent. So a spread can be $2.96 bid vs. $2.98 ask rather than $2.95 vs. $3.00.

This finer granularity to the pricing can give me an edge in options of a few cents per share. Multiply that by 100 shares per options contract and who knows how many trades a year, and it adds up.

Moreover, stocks on the penny-increment list tend to be very liquid. Generally, the higher the liquidity, the narrower the spreads, and the greater my edge, because I'm not paying as much for the privilege of opening a position.

In addition, I also screen a selection of exchange-traded funds focused mainly on markets outside the United States and on commodities. They often lack liquidity, but they make up for that by adding diversification to the mix. The more markets I'm trading, the less likely I am to have all of my positions hit by a contrary move.

Moreover, I limit my scan to stocks priced at $5 or more, since these are less prone than cheaper stocks to market manipulation.

And I scan stocks with volume equal to that of NKE or greater -- generally north of 2 million shares a day. The higher the volume, the smaller the spreads and the smoother the fluctuations, generally (although not always).

Put it all in the mix, and I've narrowed my trading universe to about 300 stocks plus change.

I also select based on a specific set of technical analysis rules. When I say "breakout", I don't mean "looking good" or "on the rise" or "might make some money".

To be a breakout in my analysis, a stock's price must move beyond the 55-day price channel. There are also other rules that further limit which breakouts get a place on my Top Prospects list.

See "How I Trade" for a complete explanation of my trading rules.

On a normal day, when the market is trending sideways, I'll usually end up with fewer than half a dozen breakouts. When the market is trending broadly, it can be as many as a dozen or so.

All in all, it's a very small harvest from the immense pool of stocks that are traded on the U.S. exchanges. And that's exactly how I want it.

The biggest problem faced by any trader is span of control. I can only manage a limited number of positions. If the number grows too large, then I find myself spending more time on portfolio management than on analyzing potential trades.

So when it comes to the number of stocks that make my Top Prospects list, small is beautiful. And on a day like today, when the markets were quiet, and perhaps even comatose, the fact that I found no breakouts that met my criteria shows that my system is working.

5/27 Almanac

On Friday, May 27: Income and outlays, pending home sales.

There are 22 trading days before the June options expire, 50 the July, 85 the August and 113 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

5/26 Top Prospects

With the long Memorial Day weekend coming up in the United States, there are no breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

5/26 Indicators

The macd on crude oil (USO) have turned bullish.

The parabolic sar for the U.S. dollar, in trading against a basket of other currencies, has turned bearish.

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
 
QQQ  
 
VIX  
 

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
 
JNK  
 

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
 
GLD  
 

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
 
EEM  
 

5/26 Forex

Three new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
CAD/CHF  
20
may26 SFr0.8871 SFr0.8978 0.0107 1.2%
GBP/CZK  
28
may25 Kč28.485 Kč28.147 0.338 1.2%
NZD/HKD  
19
may26 HK$6.3039 HK$6.2220 0.0819 1.3%

The CAD/CHF breakout comes after an extensive pullback within a price channel bear phase that began on May 4.

NZD/USD is within a few pips of a breakout. The pair has a long carry bias of 270 basis points. If it should break out today, here’s what the analysis would look like:

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
NZD/USD  
18
may26 US$0.8120 US$0.8015 0.0105 1.3%

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

5/26 Almanac

On Thursday, May 26: GDP, jobless claims.

There are 23 trading days before the June options expire, 51 the July, 86 the August and 114 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

Trading Rules Change

A small change to my trading rules.

It is not uncommon for a price to move beyond the price channel (a breakout) but then to return to within the price channel during trading on the breakout day.

This change requires entry at a price beyond the breakout level. If the price has retreated to within the price channel, then I enter my order as a conditional trade, at one cent (or one pip in the case of forex) beyond the channel boundary.

The new language is in the list of conditions for bull and bear entry. The final conditions read like this, with the new language underlined:

Bull: "If yes, then open a bull position at a price above the breakout level.

Bear: "If yes, then open a bear position at a price below the breakout level.


An example from today's Top Prospects is JNPR.

My trading rules are set out in "How I Trade", which is available on the menu bar.

5/25 Top Prospects

Three breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened. A small harvest after all of the scheduling drama.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
DD  
23
may25 $51.10 $52.35 1.25 2.5%
JNPR  
24
may24 $36.48 $37.61 1.13 3.1%
NFLX  
14
may25 $254.98 $248.01 6.97 2.7%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

NFLX is a second breakout following a severe pullback within a bull phase that began April 21.

5/25 Forex, update

This morning I listed EUR/CZK in my Forex report as within a pip of breaking out. The pair has broken above the 55-day price channel, quite strongly, moving into bull phase.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
EUR/CZK  
23
may25 Kč24.571 Kč24.461 0.110 0.5%

Wednesday's Schedule, update

My jury pool was dismissed early as, in an uncharacteristic outburst of civility and friendliness, most of the cases on the docket were settled before juries were empaneled. Perhaps Portland, Oregon well deserves its reputation as one of the most laid back cities in the United States.

So, I'm revising my previous filing plans.

I shall do a scan of stocks and file Top Prospects today.

And the Almanac will be posted, as usual, right after the U.S. market close.

5/25 Indicators

Gold’s (GLD) macd has turned bullish and is again aligned with the price-channel bull phase that began March 1.

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
 
QQQ  
 
VIX  
 

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
 
JNK  
 

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
 
GLD  
 

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
 
EEM  
 

5/25 Forex

Three new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
CHF/SEK  
29
may25 Skr7.2528 Skr7.1675 0.0853 1.2%
CHF/ZAR  
31
may25 R8.0593 R7.9417 0.1176 1.5%
GBP/TRY  
31
may25 TL2.6063 TL2.5813 0.0290 1.1%

The CHF/SEK, CHF/ZAR and GBP/TRY breakouts are contrary the carry bias.

EUR/CZK is within a pip of a bull breakout. If it were to break out today, here’s what the analysis would look like:

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
EUR/CZK  
23
may25 Kč24.571 Kč24.461 0.110 0.5%

The EUR/CZK breakout is aligned with the carry bias, but the spread is a miniscule 21 basis points.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

5/25 Almanac

On Wednesday, May 25: Durable goods.

There are 24 trading days before the June options expire, 52 the July, 87 the August and 115 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

Wednesday's Schedule

I have jury duty on Wednesday and shall spend the day cloistered in the depths of the Multnomah County Courthouse in Portland, Oregon, out of contact with the markets for a day.

It's tough for a dedicated trader, but I shall man up and endure this enforced estrangement from the market flow. I hope the withdrawal symptoms aren't too bad.

For my posting schedule, it means this: I'll post the Indicators and the Forex scan, although they might be earlier than usual by about 15 minutes or so.

I won't do a stock scan, so Top Prospects will not be posted. Thursday's scan (assuming I don't get a multi-day trial) will cover Wednesday's breakouts as well as the current day's.

I shall post the Almanac, but it will be hours late.

Wish me luck (i.e., short trials).

5/24 Top Prospects

Three breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
EP  
14
may24 $19.67 $19.27 0.68 3.5%
KRE  
21
may24 $25.30 $25.69 0.39 1.5%
XRX  
13
may24 $9.78 $10.01 0.23 2.4%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

The EP breakout follows a pullback within a price channel bull phase that began on April 15.

PNC is within 2¢ of a breakout below the 55-day price channel.

5/24 Forex

Three new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow. All kiwi all the time.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
AUD/NZD  
17
may24 NZ$1.3189 NZ$1.3312 0.0123 0.9%
NZD/SGD  
22
may24 S$0.9976 S$0.9878 0.0098 1.0%
NZD/THB  
20
may24 ฿24.205 ฿23.915 0.290 1.2%

5/24 Indicators

The parabolic sar has turned bullish on the fear index (VIX), which has been in price-channel neutral phase since May 5.

The macd on Treasury long-term debt (TLT) has fallen below the zero-line, turning bearish. The indicator has been in price-channel bull phase since May 5.

Gold’s (GLD) parabolic sar has turned bullish and is again aligned with the price-channel bull phase that began March 1.

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
 
QQQ  
 
VIX  
 

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
 
JNK  
 

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
 
GLD  
 

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
 
EEM  
 

Monday, May 23, 2011

5/24 Almanac

On Tuesday, May 24: New home sales.

There are 25 trading days before the June options expire, 53 the July, 88 the August and 116 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

5/23 Top Prospects

Six new breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
CF  
13
may23 $145.25 $139.20 6.05 4.2%
CMA  
18
may23 $36.18 $36.73 0.55 1.5%
DE*  
26
may23 $84.27 $85.93 2.46 2.9%
EPI+  
25
may23 $22.64 $22.96 0.37 1.6%
MU  
18
may23 $9.65 $10.08 0.43 4.5%
PSTL+  
28
may23 $21.74 $21.88 0.32 1.5%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

5/23 Forex

Eight new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
CHF/CZK  
38
may20 Kč19.733 Kč19.499 0.234 1.2%
CHF/DKK  
32
may20 Dkr6.0101 Dkr5.9503 0.0598 1.0%
DKK/SGD  
23
may23 S$0.2346 S$0.2320 0.0026 1.1%
EUF/CHF  
32
may23 SFr1.2403 SFr1.2276 0.0127 1.0%
EUR/MXN  
21
may20 Mex$16.474 Mex$16.656 0.183 1.1%
EUR/SGD  
24
may20 S$1.7501 S$1.7696 0.0195 1.1%
NZD/PLN  
16
may23 Zł2.2183 Zł2.1789 0.0334 1.5%
USD/TRY  
29
may23 TL1.6056 TL1.5872 0.0184 1.2%

The carry bias and direction of trade are aligned for EUR/MXN, divergent for the others.

5/23 Indicators

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (SPY and QQQ) both turned neutral as they gapped below the 20-day price channel.

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
 
QQQ  
 
VIX  
 

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
 
JNK  
 

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
 
GLD  
 

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
 
EEM  
 

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Trading Rules: Changes

I've done an extensive reworking of my trading rules to better reflect how I'm operating in practice.

The underlying rules are pretty much unaltered. There are change in terminology to try to differentiate between concepts.

The biggest change is that I have divided exits into those triggered by a price-channel phase change, and those triggered by other factors (the oscillators). As part of that, I've added re-entry rules to each exit.

Here's the link: www.timbovee.com/p/readers-guide.html. And the guide is always available from the menu bar under "How I Trade".

Friday, May 20, 2011

5/23 Almanac

On Monday, May 23: A bit of fluffery from the Chicagoland Fed.

There are 26 trading days before the June options expire, 54 the July, 89 the August and 117 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

5/20 Top Prospects

Five breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
BRCD  
16
may20 $6.49 $6.31 0.18 2.8%
CHIM+  
22
may20 $13.41 $13.63 0.22 1.6%
COF  
18
may19 $55.64 $54.49 1.15 3.1%
MT  
19
may20 $32.42 $33.47 1.05 3.2%
S*  
21
may20 $5.37 $5.20 0.17 3.2%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

The BRCD breakout came on a 6%+ rise after the company announced earnings that were twice the estimates.

CHIM tracks the China materials sector.

DAL today came within 4¢ of breaking out to the bull side. The breakout level is $11.64.

DE has touched the lower price channel boundary without breaking through. The level is $84.27.

GME shows a bullside breakout after an earnings surprise, but a declining average directional index (adx) negates the phase change.

The S breakout comes amid an ongoing bull phase that has lated since March 8. I note it in the analysis because of its strength.


5/20 Forex

There are no new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

5/20 Indicators

The fear index (VIX) turned bearish on the macd. The indicator has been in price-channel neutral phase since May 6. The VIX tracks the volatility of the S&P 500, and a bearish VIX is considered to be bullish for stocks.

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
10
QQQ  
14
VIX  
16

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
18
JNK  
8

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
34
GLD  
17

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
25
EEM  
17

Thursday, May 19, 2011

5/20 Almanac

On Friday, May 20: No econ events.

This is the last trading day for May options. There are 29 trading days before June options expire, 57 the July, 92 the August and 120 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

5/19 Top Prospects

Five breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
LCC  
32
may19 $10.10 $9.65 0.45 4.5%
MBI  
16
may19 $8.88 $9.27 0.39 4.4%
MGM  
27
may19 $15.15 $14.58 3.7 3.8%
YUM  
26
may18 $55.39 $54.51 0.88 1.6%
VNM+  
23
may19 $22.42 $22.91 0.49 2.2%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

VRSN broke above the 55-day price channel but with a declining average direction index (adx), which invalidates the phase change.

YUM saw its adx turn up after breaking out Wednesday with an adx decline. The price remains above the breakout level, and so the breakout is now validated.

VNM is one of the Next 11 emerging markets.

5/19 Forex

One new breakout among the 124 currency pairs I follow.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
GBP/NZD*  
20
may19 NZ$2.0365 NZ$2.0612 0.0247 1.2%

The GBP/NZD carry balance is short by more than 200 basis points, making this a position I would willingly hold for my own account.

5/19 Indicators

The S&P 500 volatility index (the VIX, also called the fear index) has turned bearish on the parabolic sar after 10 day son the bull side. The indicator has been in neutral phase since May 5.

The average directional index (adx) on Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) dropped below 20 as its trend weakens.

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
11
QQQ  
15
VIX  
16

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
JNK  
8

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
34
GLD  
18

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
26
EEM  
17

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

5/19 Almanac

On Thursday, May 19: Jobless claims, existing homes.

There are two days before May options expire, 30 the June, 58 the July and 93 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

5/18 Top Prospects

Three breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
DELL  
30
may18 $16.80 $16.30 0.50 3.0%
HPQ  
27
may17 $37.60 $38.55 0.95 2.5%
KBH  
21
may17 $10.94 $11.31 0.37 3.4%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

DELL broke above the price channel on an earnings announcement gap. I’ve listed it, but it doesn’t count as a new breakout, since the stock went into bull phase on Feb. 16 and despite a severe retreat, has remained in bull phase ever since.

YUM broke above the price channel, but with a slightly declining average directional index (adx), invalidating the phase change.


5/18 Forex

Two new breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow. A third, PLN/HUF, is close to a breakout.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
CHF/NOK  
29
may17 Nkr6.349 Nkr6.265 0.084 1.3%
GBP/SGD  
15
may18 S$2.0096 S$2.0239 %

CHF/NOK has a significant carry-trade bias to the short side.

GBP/SGD has a small carry bias to the long side.

PLN/HUF is within 0.015 forints of breaking above the price channel. The breakout level is Ft68.685. The carry bias is to the short side, to the tune of about 180 basis points.

5/18 Indicators

Corporate high-yield debt (JNK) is again fully aligned in bull phase, 11 days after the parabolic sar turned bearish. The current bull phase began on April 27.

Gold (GLD) continues to weaken in a bull phase that began March 1, with the average directional index (adx) falling below 20.

Stocks

sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
SPY  
13
QQQ  
17
VIX  
18

Bonds
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
TLT  
22
JNK  
8

Tangibles
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
USO  
36
GLD  
19

Global
sym phase adx   psar macd iv-sv
UUP  
26
EEM  
18

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

5/17 Forex Update

CHF/NOK, which was within a single krone of breaking above the price channel at this morning's scan of the 124 pairs I follow, put on an extra push and broke out to bull phase later in the day.

It's not a trade that I would take on my own account. Short-term interest rates in Switzerland are 0.18%, and in Norway they're 2.67%. So, long positions are paying about 250 basis points in intrest for the privilege of existing.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
CHF/NOK  
29
may17 Nkr6.349 Nkr6.265 0.084 1.3%

5/18 Almanac

On Wednesday, May 18: Money policy minutes.

There are three days before May options expire, 31 the June, 59 the July and 94 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

5/17 Top Prospects

Nine breakouts today beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
BP  
21
may16 $42.50 $43.36 0.86 2.0%
CSCO  
21
may17 $16.52 $16.84 0.32 1.9%
EWZ+  
21
may17 $70.97 $72.73 1.76 2.5%
FCX  
24
may17 $46.20 $48.16 1.96 4.2%
FWLT  
19
may17 $32.45 $33.69 1.24 3.8%
NBR  
28
may17 $25.64 $26.64 1.00 3.9%
PKOL+  
20
may16 $34.07 $34.81 0.74 2.2%
PXP  
18
may17 $32.75 $34.03 1.28 3.9%
YHOO  
31
may16 $15.81 $16.50 0.69 4.4%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).