Friday, May 13, 2011

5/13 Top Prospects

Eight breakouts today beyond the 55-day price channel among the 300+ stocks and exchange trade funds I screened.

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
AKS  
18
may13 $14.40 $14.95 0.55 3.8%
BSX  
22
may13 $6.86 $7.12 0.26 3.8%
BTU  
29
may13 $60.06 $62.31 2.25 3.8%
JPM  
17
may13 $43.40 $44.21 0.81 1.9%
KGC  
15
may13 $14.16 $14.69 0.56 4.0%
RMBS  
17
may13 $18.12 $19.09 0.97 5.4%
SU  
21
may12 $40.25 $41.73 1.48 3.7%
XLF  
13
may13 $15.79 $15.98 0.19 1.2%
Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

KO broke above the price channel, but with a (barely) declining average directional index (adx) that negated the signal.

A followup to Thursday’s wannabes: Six stocks and a fund broke below the price channel, but with intra-day rises, invalidating the signal under my rules.

Of those issues, three -- AKS, BTU and KGC -- followed up today with sharp bearish breakouts and intraday declines. Three -- NOV, TXT and USO -- remain above the breakout level. One issue -- SU -- turned to a decline intraday after my scan and so produced a valid phase change.


Key
  • phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
  • atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

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