5/19 Indicators

The S&P 500 volatility index (the VIX, also called the fear index) has turned bearish on the parabolic sar after 10 day son the bull side. The indicator has been in neutral phase since May 5.

The average directional index (adx) on Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) dropped below 20 as its trend weakens.

Stocks

sym	phase	adx		psar	macd	iv-sv
SPY		11
QQQ		15
VIX		16

Bonds

sym	phase	adx		psar	macd	iv-sv
TLT
JNK		8

Tangibles

sym	phase	adx		psar	macd	iv-sv
USO		34
GLD		18

Global

sym	phase	adx		psar	macd	iv-sv
UUP		26
EEM		17

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USO - crude oil
UUP - U.S. dollar index
VIX - fear index


Key

• chan: 55-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend. I use the base rule for phase changes: A 55-day channel phase continues until the price has crossed beyond the opposite 20-day channel boundary.
• adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• psar: The parabolic sar, either green for bullish or red for bearish.
• macd: The macd, either green for bullish or red for bearish.
• iv-sv: Implied volatility less statistical volatility (also called historical volatility). Orange if implied volatility is greater than and bue if less than historical volatility. Orange suggests net long positions will be more profitable (both bull and bear), and blue suggests the greater profit lies in short positions. Yellow means the two volatilities are identical (or close to).

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.