Wednesday, May 18, 2011

5/19 Almanac

On Thursday, May 19: Jobless claims, existing homes.

There are two days before May options expire, 30 the June, 58 the July and 93 the August.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.9% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.2% in a net move up of 0.8%.

The day's extremes: Open $133.24, high $134.50, low $132.95, close $134.36.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $133.66-$135.21.

In total, 2.8 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 12% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.20%, seven basis points higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Weekly jobless claims are out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and three reports at 10 a.m.: Existing home sales, the Philadelphia Fed survey and leading indicators.

The natural gas report will be released at 10:30 a.m.

The Federal Reserve does its weekly balance sheet and money supply releases at 4:30 p.m.

Jobless claims and home sales are potential market movers. It is said that the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's survey within its region regarding the business outlook can also be a mover, but-- maybe not so much.

Treasury auctions 10-year tax-indexed notes (TIPS) at 1 p.m., and announces borrowing levels through auctions of 3- and 6-month bills, and 2-, 5- and 7-year notes at 11 a.m.

Fedsters: New York Fed Pres. William Dudley gives two speeches. His colleague, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans, shows the moderation befitting a central banker by limiting his appearances to one.

Both have votes in setting monetary policy, which gives extraordinary weight, potentially, to whatever they might say.

Dudley took office under President Barack Obama. His resume shows institutional ties to Goldman Sachs and the Congressional Budget Office under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

Evans took office under President George W. Bush. He came up through the Fed system.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive, where it posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade June vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, covered calls and iron condors, as well as August or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

No comments:

Post a Comment