Wednesday, April 27, 2011

4/27 Earns

Eighteen of the stocks I'm tracking announce earnings after the close today (April 27) or before the open tomorrow (April 28). Two of them, PHM and RCL, are both prone to big earnings surprises and are volatile.

The 800-pound gorillas of the batch are SBUX and EBAY.

When I score these stocks, I'm looking to find which meet these criteria:

  • The 14-day average true range is 2.5% of the price or higher.
  • Of the last five quarters, earnings have shown a 50% surprise, in either direction, at least three times, and additionally, a 20% surprise at least two times.

Among those announcing after the close today, none are prone to earnings surprises, but two meet the volatility criterion. They are AKAM and FLEX. Other's announcing today are ALL, CLF, EBAY and SBUX.

Neither SBUX nor EBAY are in my volatility range. EBAY has some surprisiness -- it has had one over 50% in the last five quarters. SBUX, however, has had no earnings surprises at 20% or above in the past five quarters.

Among those announcing tomorrow before the open are PHM and RCL, both of which are sufficiently volatile and surprise-prone to meet my standards. PHM has shown a 20%+ surprise for each of the past five quarters, four of them above 50%. RCL has shown four 50%+ surprises out of hte five quarters.

Tomorrow's announcements meeting the volatility criterion but lacking the surprise history are IP, POT, S and TYC.

Also announcing pre-open tomorrow are APA, BMY, CTIC, DOW, MYL, OXY, PEP, PG and XOM.

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