Tuesday, April 26, 2011

4/27 Almanac

On Wednesday, April 27: Monetary policy, durable goods.

There are 24 days before May options expire, 52 the June and 80 the July.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session 0.9% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.9% in a net move down of 0.6%.

The day's extremes: Open $134.05, high $135.06, low $133.91, close $134.79.

SPY traded entirely above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $134.35-$135.50.

In total, 2.9 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 32% more than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.34%, two basis points higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Today belongs to Ben. There is none other.

Oh, sure, durable goods will be released at 10 a.m. Eastern. Lots of luck getting ink for that.

Everyone is paying attention to a) the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee at the end of a two-day money policy meeting, and b) the first-ever post meeting news conference by a Fed chairman.

The announcement will come around 12:30 p.m., earlier than usual. Chairman Ben Bernanke's news conference is scheduled to begin at 2:15 p.m., the time the announcement is usually made.

I intend to spend the 105 minutes between the two events staring at SPY and the U.S. dollar forex pairs on a tick-chart watching the day-traders go absolutely nuts as they try to position themselves between the Mandarin dryness of the FOMC announcement and Bernanke's explanations under reporters' questioning.

This will be fun.

Also out, petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m., and the Mortgage Bankers' weekly purchase applications report, a leading indicator for home sales, at 7 a.m.

Treasury auctions 5-year notes at 1 p.m.

No Fedsters are scheduled to make public appearances, except for Bernanke. The Fed's archive generally posts prepared material, but not the ad hoc Q&A sessions.

So, we'll see what they plan to do with Bernanke's newser.

The archive is available at the Federal Reserve web site, where the central bank often posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade May vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as July or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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