AAPL Watch

Jim Cramer is saying buy-buy-buy AAPL calls. He's bullish on Apple Inc., as am I.

But in opening a position in stocks, as in sex and soccer, timing is everything.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AAPL $248.48

Cramer is actually making some specific options recommendations for AAPL. Click on the link above to listen to his video.

But is right now -- meaning Friday, July 2 -- the right time to enter a bull position on AAPL?

I'm a fact-based traders. Let's look at the evidence.

• The 14-day trend is down.
• The parabolic sar and Person's Proporietary Signal are both in bear mode, and have been for days.
• The macd is below the zero line and moving further into bear territory.
• The stock is trading below the 20-day simple moving average.
• Today's intra-day decline of 4.5% occurred with a 38% increase in volume.
• The stock has been trading sideways between $268 and $241, with a few over- and under-shoots, since April.

Everything on the chart shouts "Beware the Bear" except for the fast stochastic, which remains below the 20-line (bearish) but is pointing upward (bullish).

Don't get me wrong. I like AAPL a lot. One of my biggest regrets in life is the time I bought AAPL (for around $20 or so, as I recall) on rumors that Steve Jobs was coming back to run the company. He did. The stock went up. I took my profits. I've wished ever since that I had stuck the shares into my long-term portfolio.

I would follow Cramer's advice and go long AAPL under one of these circumstances:

• A move above the 20-day simple moving average on a volume spike of 10% or greater.
• A switch to bull phase by the parabolic sar, the pps or the macd.
• A price increase both intra-day and compared to the prior day's low on a volume spike of 25% or greater.
• A persistent breakout above $279 on a volume spike of 10% or greater.

Reversal Levels

• $279.01, +12.3%
• $248.48 <== You are here.
• $244.84, -1.5%

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Abbreviations:

• psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
• adx - Average Directional Index
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
• ma20 - 20-day moving average
• macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
• sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.