Tuesday, July 27, 2010

MRVL Watch

The specialty semiconductor provider Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is showing bear phase on the parabolic sar, ending a phase mismatch between the psar and Person's Proprietary Signal that has gone one for a week and a half. The macd has also turned to the bear side.

MRVL $15.99

Earnings are due out Aug. 26 after the close, and already analysts have been active spreading negative vibes. The most recent downward slide began on July 14 and so far has cut more than 11% off the price., which is now just a bit above the six-month low of $15.63.

Trend players will see this as a downtrending stock and will consider a break below that low as a signal to open or add to bear positions.

Surprise players will consider a true earnings surprise to be on the upside, and will open bullish positions at appropriate low points prior to the announcement.

In the longer term, MRVL has been trading down since last April as a leg in an even larger downtrend that began in 2005.

On the Person's chart, MRVL is trading below the midline, at $17.08. A rise above that level would strengthen the expectation of a bullish surprise.

Person's Table
ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
MRVL $15.99 $17.30 jul16 $18.44 +15.3% $17.37 -8.6%

The reversal levels are well within the upper and lower Person's pivots.

Reversal Levels
  • $17.90, +11.9%
  • $15.99 <== You are here.
  • $15.80, -1.2%
  • $15.63, -2.3%
Bottom line: For my own portfolio, since MRVL is near the bottom of its six-month range, I like it as a trend play (bear) if the price breaks below $15.63, and with earnings approaching, I like it a surprise play (bull) if the price rises intraday on a significant volume spike, perhaps 21 million share and more.

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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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