Wednesday, July 14, 2010

7/14 Forex

  • GBP/USD moves to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps).
  • USD/CAD tests lower pivot for third day running.
ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.2711 US$1.2236 jul01 US$1.2510 US$1.1602
USD/JPY¥88.40 ¥87.70 jul08 ¥91.49 ¥85.29
GBP/USD US$1.5238 US$1.5176 jul14 US$1.5266 US$1.4021
EUR/JPY ¥112.35 ¥110.03 jul06 ¥112.46 ¥103.05
USD/CAD C$1.0336 C$1.0543 jul07 US$1.1024 US$1.0291

The British pound's move to a bull posture against the U.S. dollar comes after a foray into bear territory lasting only three days.

It is no surprise to see such whippiness in the currency pair: It has been trading sideways since the end of June, between around US$1.5185 and US$1.5205, with a few break outs and downs along the way.

The pattern is trading out just below the upper Person's Pivot, which suggests to me that the likelihood of a downside move is the greater. Given the difficulty the price has had breaking above its range, the chart looks very much like the typical churning of a top.

But, it could just as easily be a sideways stop as the pound ascends to glory, so we shall see.

Person's Monthly Pivots
  • US$1.5266, +0.2% (upper)
  • US$1.5238 <== You are here.
  • US$1.4805, -2.8% (midline)
  • US$1.4021, -8.0% (lower)
The U.S. dollar's bounces along the lower pivot in trading against the Canadian dollar suggests greater upside potential.

The pair is in the sixth day of a bear phase. The prior bear phase consumed nine days.

A break below C$1.0291 would means the pair had pierced the lower pivot, allowing further declines. The swing high stands above the midline, and a move through C$1.0484 would set up a challenge to that higher level.

The analysis uses the daily Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the monthly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the day the signal appeared.  

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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