Wednesday, July 14, 2010

7/15 Almanac

On Thursday, July 15: Producer prices, industrial production.

There are 2 days before the July options expire, 37 the August and 65 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.01% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.1% low to high in a net move up of 0.3%.

Friday's extremes: Open $109.31, high $110.08, low $108.86, close $109.65.

SPY traded below and closed within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $109.26-$110.48.

In total, 3.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 30% more than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The producer price index, out at 8:30 a.m., is a preview, sometimes, of Friday's consumer price index. The producer index tells what the makers are getting for their product. The consumer index tells what the retailers are getting.

It is, of course, possible for producers to get squeezed while retailers clean up, or vice versa, so the two indexes don't always move in tandem.

The other potential market mover is industrial production at 9:15 a.m. It gives a detailed look at the production in various industrial sectors. If these companies are making more good, then the expectation is that 1) they expect more demand and so are meeting it, suggesting prosperity is just around the corner, or 2) they're dead wrong in their expectations so the market will be glutted, causing prices to fall, workers to be laid off, misery, pain, angst and bad hair days.

Other sometimes movers: Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. can cause a bump market-wide if they do the unexpected, and natural gas inventories at 10:30 a.m. can do the same for the energy sector.

Small fry: Empire State manufacturing survey at 8:30 a.m., Philadelphia Fed survey at 10 a.m., Fed balance sheet and money supply at 4:30 p.m.

All in all, a full day

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade August calendar, vertical, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, September straddles and single calls or puts. Shares, of course, are good anytime.

Good trading!

The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we remerge from the wreckage.


  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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