Monday, July 19, 2010

7/19 Morningline

  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) moves to bear phase on the pps.
  • High-yield corporate debt (JNK) shows a bear signal on the fast stochastic.
  • Crude oil (USO) remains in bull phase after last week's pps counter signal cheshires.
  • Gold (GLD) gaps down for a second straight trading day.

Stocks and Rates
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

The QQQQ signal didn't show at Friday's open but kicked in prior to the close of last week's trading, accompanied by a sharp decline through the 20-day simple moving average.

JNK's fast stochast moved out of overbought territory back into the neutral zone.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

Oil and Gold
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
USO
GLD

The pps USO signal cheshired -- disappeared like the Cheshire cat in "Alice" -- and that's not unusual for this signal. Although the disppearance leaves USO in bull phase on the pps, such cheshiring indicates weakness in the trend.

Favorite USO headline today: "Oil up but longer-term risk worries remain". When do "longer-term risk worries" not remain? Sorry, MidnightTrader. Lacks insightfulness.

The question with GLD is, whatever happened to all that talk of $10,000 per ounce?

Global
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
EEM



The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we reemerge from the wreckage.



Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index


Abbreviations:

  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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