Friday, July 23, 2010

SIRI Watch

Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI), the satellite broadcasting company that actually made radio high-tech again, is trading on double volume and a bull flag from Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) that is ghosting in and out of existence.
SIRI $0.97

The company announces earnings before the opening on Aug. 4.

The on-again off-again pps bull phase comes in the context of a macd inching (more like millimetering) above the zero line into bull territory and then dropping back again, a parabolic sar that has been in bull phase for three days, and a fast stochastic rising quickly toward oversold territory and glory.

Financially, SIRI is not a high performer. It earned 1¢ per share in each of the last two quarters, and was losing pennies per share the three quarters before that.

The stock's price has been sideways and narrow since May, in a range between $1.10 and 90¢ with a few breakouts and downs. And the price keeps dipping below a dollar, a no-no for companies aiming at respectability in the agora.

The only way I would conceivably play SIRI is as a potential, cheap earnings surprise. Even that would have to be directional. The options on this semi-penny-stock have strike prices that are 50¢ apart, a huge percentage at these low prices. So stock ownership or short-selling are the only reasonable options. An options straddle is out.

Bottom line: SIRI is the sheerest speculation. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Speculation shows two faces: The smile of profits and the woe of loss. So a SIRI play is OK, as long as the trader keeps smiling.

Person's Table
ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
SIRI $0.97 $0.96 jul23 $1.06 $0.81

On the Person's chart, the price has been mainly scooting along just below the midline since May.

Reversal Levels
  • $1.10, +13.4% (range top)
  • $0.97 <== You are here.
  • $0.90, -7.2% (range bottom)

The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we reemerge from the wreckage.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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