Tuesday, July 13, 2010

7/14 Almanac

On Wednesday, July 14: Retail sales, oil inventories, FOMC minutes.

There are 3 days before the July options expire, 38 the August and 66 the September.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.5% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.1% low to high in a net move up of 0.5%.

Friday's extremes: Open $109.15, high $110.09, low $108.03, close $109.66.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $109.30-$110.46.

In total, 3.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 30% more than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The government's retail sales report will be out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. This is the most comprehensive of the retail reports, showing whether Americans are starting to spend their way back to prosperity. The tea-party folk, with their balanced budget fixation, surely have it wrong. True patriots will shop till they drop! Main impact: The exchange-traded fund XRT.

Crude oil inventories, a weekly report, at 10:30 a.m. It mainly impacts the energy sector, reflected in these funds: USO for crude and XLE for energy.

The Federal Open Market Committee release the minutes of its most recent meeting at 2 p.m. Generally, no impact, but if there's a surprise -- a member seriously dissenting or a split vote -- then it can move the markets.

Also, some small fry: Mortgage bankers purchase applications (a weekly leading indicator for home sales and construction) at 7 a.m., import and export prices at 8:30 a.m and business inventories at 10 a.m.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade August calendar, vertical, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, September straddles and single calls or puts. Shares, of course, are good anytime.

Good trading!

The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we remerge from the wreckage.


  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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