HLX Watch

When I a see a stock fall sharply on higher volume, I'm never sure how to take it? People are selling in a panic in anticipation of a greater fall? People are accumulating wildy because of a great rise ahead? Panic in the morning and accumulation in the afternoon?

That's the puzzle today of Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc. (HLX), an offshore energy company operating globally.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
HLX $9.93

HLX is trading nearly 8% below Thursday's close on volume that's running 39% above the prior day's with 55 minutes left to trade.

The macd switched into bear phase today. The parabolic sar has been bearish for a week, and Person's Proprietary Signal for nine trading days.

What today's drop didn't do (the dog that didn't bark in the night) is pierce the swing low of $9.70 set on June 8. The stock has been stairstepping down in a classic directional trend since the swing high of $17 was recorded on April 26, but it would take a decline below the swing low to illustrate for a certainty that the downtrend was continuing.

It's important to note that on the 133-tick intraday chart, the bulk of the decline came overnight and in the first half hour of trading. For most of the day, the stock has been fluctuating sideways, and at this point within the last hour of trading is tending upward.

So the answer to the question at the outset of this posting is: People panicked out, and then there was some accumulation, but of the half-hearted variety. Today's low (so far) is 1¢ above the swing low, and I'd like to see that $9.70 level pierced in a persistant way before I would be happy with a bear position on this stock.

Reversal Levels

• $11.72, +18.0%
• $9.93 <== You are here.
• $9.70, -2.3%

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Abbreviations:

• psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
• adx - Average Directional Index
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
• ma20 - 20-day moving average
• macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
• sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.