Friday, July 2, 2010

JOYG Watch

The rise today of the mining equipment maker Joy Global Inc. (JOYG) can't really be called a volume spike. It's more like a volume blip, or even a volume zit.

Even so, the stock is trading more than 2% above Thursday's close, and spent part of the day much higher, so it must be taken seriously. Also, the price reversal comes with some strong bearish sentiment from the signals, who may just be lagging (lazy signals that they be) or may be smarter than today's traders.

trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
US$

Person's Proprietary Signal has been in bear phase for seven days, and the parabolic sar for two. The macd is in its fourth day below the zero line, although today it reversed course and began rising back toward bullishness. The fast stochastic crossed the 20-line into the neutral zone.

All of this is on chit-chat about how the company's stock could benefit if an Australian tax proposal goes through. It all sounds very news-speculative and day-tradery to me, but hey.

On the three-month chart, JOYG has been upward since hitting a swing low of $44.25 on May 21, although the rise is fairly wimpish and could be considered part of a down downward since the chart peak at $65.93 on April 15. It's one of those glass-half-full-half-empty sorts of problems.

In the very near term, the most recent highest high was $58.56 on June 21. The stock declined to a swing low of $48.05 on July 1 (and that decline included a nasty downward gap that pierced the 20-day simple moving average). Today's rise is the first movement off of that swing low.

Before liking JOYG as a bull play, I'd want to see the price pierce the 20-day moving average (now at $53.71), and also to show a bull signal on either the pps or the psar. I would treat the swing high of $58.56 as a selling point if the price paused around that level. I have no confidence that it will be pierced for a continued rise.

But, even within those constraints, it sets up a 9% potential profit for a short-term play. I'll take that anytime.

Reversal Levels
  • $58.56, +14.7%
  • $53.71, +5.2% (20-day sma)
  • $51.06 <== You are here.
  • $48.05, -5.9%

The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
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Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Abbreviations:
  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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