Uh, no.
Ford alone of the U.S. automakers remained independent of the government. And its stock has rewarded shareholders for that move of bold independence, gaining 24.6% in a 14-month bull phase from $34.28 in April 2009 to $42.71 in June. That's 21.1% annualized gain.
Sadly for bulls, June marked a close below the 20-day simple moving average, by the book pushing Ford into bear territory. The last time Ford went bearish, in stayed in the doldrums for seven months.
Moreover, Ford's last rise failed to hit the pre-collapse high of $55.07, in October 2007, so it's looking like a downtrend on the monthly chart. (Of course, it also failed to make a lower low, so it could also be some sort of a bizarre multi-year triangle.)
In any case, under my long-term trading, I won't buy Ford until it closes above the 12-month moving average, presently at $45, or 6% above Friday's close.
My rules are to buy when a stock closes above the 12-month simple moving average on the monthly chart, sell when it closes below the average, and calculate percentage gain or loss from the close in the entry month to the close in the exit month.
I also like dividend paying stocks for long-term plays, and tend to be partial to trading with the the trend, meaning uptrending stocks.
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we reemerge from the wreckage.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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