Thursday, July 1, 2010

When markets turn boring

It's not that I'm on an extended holiday schedule for the Glorious 4th (although what a nice thought that is). Nor have I been sitting, entranced, channel-flipping between World Cup Soccer and the Elana Kagan hearings. Actually, the way she moves the ball, they have a lot in common.

Frankly, there just hasn't been that much of interest in my scans. The broad markets are down. Everything I look at is down, rushing like impassioned lemmings toward the cliffs.

Signals are few, because everything is already in bear mode. The only possibly play is to latch on to an exchange-traded fund with a bear position and ride it down until the macd reverses direction, or until some other indicator tells you that the liquor has run out and the party is breaking up.

The Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) has been fascinating because of the levels of risk implied in its price in the wake a very, very sharp dividend reduction.

Fannie Mae (FNM) used to be interesting, before the government-controlled company announced it was delisting from the NYSE. There goes the volume, maybe. Delisting implies deinteresting.

So, I'll continue to look, and over the holiday weekend I'll do some month-chart and week-chart analyses to gain a broader understanding of what's happening. And of course the daily Almanac at market close will continue to prepare for the next trading day.

There is also an interesting analytical setup that I want to test: It involves a 4% moving average envelope and something called the Awesome Oscillator.

Awesome! Look for a write-up soon.

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