3/9 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) pushed up to within 15 cents of the Jan. 14 high, close enough that if you squint your eyes, it counts as a 100 percent retracement of the decline from $115.14 down to $104.58 on Feb. 5.

A move above $115.14 creates a new high and confirms continuation of the uptrend that began in March 2009 at $67.10.

For SPY, all skies as sunny, all rainbows bright and all technical signals are bullish, at least the ones that I follow.

The long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), by contrast, continue to soak under a chilly drizzle of the sort found only in the Pacific Northwest in a March where the promise of spring-to-come remains unkept.

TLT decline for the third straight day. The pps flashed a bear signal on Friday, and today the macd moved into bear territory. The psar, inexplicably optimistic, remained bullish for the ninth straight trading day. Declining TLT prices signifies an exectation of rising interest rates. The head of the Federal Reserve's markets group, Brian Sack, said Monday that the bond markets are positioning for the expectation that short-term rates will be raised around the end of the year. If that's so, then the TLT action suggests the Fed thinks its about time to take away the punch bowl. I'm not sure why. The party hasn't even started yet, at least for the people who lost their jobs after capitalist financed collapsed in 2008. The watchlist. I'm adding three to the list today: GLD, IVZ and NVDA. All showed psar signals today.

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HAL continued to decline, and as promised yesterday, has been kicked off the island. And good riddance. KFT, who was in danger of a humilitating dismissal, held steady, and so remains on the list, a good thing because it will give another opportunity to use the moldy cheese sandwich simile.

INTC, on the bear list, turns out to be a rogue bull.

Psar bull signal (the new signal in my analyses):

• AMZN, analysis. Within Monday's range.
• EWT, analysis. Within Monday's range. I'm abbreviating this: w.m.r.
• EWY, analysis.w.m.r.
• GDX, analysis. Hit $45.25 today. A break below $46 negates the bull case, so GDX will be voted off the island.
• KFT, analysis. w.m.r.
• MGM, analysis. Today's high was $11.80, which breaks past the $11.76 resistance level, but the price pulled back to that r-level. Next  resistance at $12.03
• NVDA, analysis. New today. Next resistance is $17.90.
• T, analysis. Continued rise to $25.73. Next resistance at $25.84.

Psar bear signal:

• GLD, analysis. New today. Low so far $109.04. Next support at $106.60.
  
• IVZ, analysis. New today. Low so far $19.74. Next support at $18.95.
  
• INTC, analysis. Broke out, but the wrong way, with a 2.6% rise today low to high and a new psar bull signal. So, off the island as a bear play. I'll analyze as a bull play. Resistance at $21.09 (where it's trading now) and $21.55.

Macd bull signal:

• AOD, analysis. At $8.91. Next resistance at $9.20.
• BSX, analysis. Declines, hitting a low of $7.75, with a pps bear signal. This is a deal breaker. Off the island. The macd has started to decline.
• WFC, analysis. Continued to retreat. I'm removing from the list. the maxd is still deep in bull territory but flat rather than rising.

Abbreviations
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic

 

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