Wednesday, March 31, 2010

3/31 FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) continued to show lower highs and lower lows for a second straight day. The low so far today has been $1.04.

Volume was down for the fourth straight day.

trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
FNM $1.04

The stock appears to be tracing out a pennant, a pattern that indicates a continuation in the upward move in the price that culminated on March 9 at $1.17.

If that is in fact the pattern, then the move upon breakout would be a rise of 18¢ or around 17% at the current price.

A dip below $1.03 would invalidate the pattern, and as always with price patterns, they work fine until they don't. I certainly am not betting heavily on the pattern behaving by the book.

FNM is an unusual stock. The company is under a government conservatorship, which is not bankruptcy, but also not independent. Fannie Mae's future depends ultimately upon the will of Congress and the president, so the patterns of the marketplace may in fact means absolutely nothing when it comes to assessing Fannie's prospects.

The company released its monthly summary of activities on Tuesday.

For an overview of today's market, read the Morningline

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: green for above 30-up, red for 20-down, yellow for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone

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