3/19 Watchlist

The way days like today are supposed to be written up is like this: Blue chip stocks plummeted today amid fears of (fill in the blank: Greece? China? Commodities? Health care reform?).
Well, SPY is trading lower, but a look at the very short term chart shows the exchange-traded fund, which tracks the S&P 500, as trading very much in a sideways range, between say $115.75 and $116, with a few breakouts at either end of the range.

So, Apocalypse Now it is not. After three up days amid a 27 trading day upswing that swung up by 12.3%, it's not too shocking to see a pause. Today's low is within the range of trading set last Tuesday.

I'm not exactly singing, "Don't worry be happy," but I am saying, "Get a grip, man! It's not as bad as it seems!!".

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) are up and trading within the range of the two prior days. Gold (GLD) is showing a sharpish decline, but is trading at Monday's level. Oil (USO), which I think will be deemed a culprit in the market stories, is at the levels it saw Monday and Tuesday.


The watchlist:

Psar bull signal: ADBE, analysis. At $34.60, this stock is showing a psar bear signal and a sharp decline. It remains above the first downside reversal point of $36.13, but with the new psar bearishness, I'm declaring the two-day bull signal a major whipsaw and a FAILURE. Bad signal! You're voted off the island. *AOD, analysis. At $8.97 in a pullback with a pps bear signal. The price is 6.9% above the bull signal of a month ago. I'm declaring that signal ending in a SUCCESS. GBP/CHF, analysis. At 1.5917, whipsawed into a bear signal with a decline. Although it's above the next reversal point at S₣1.6291, I'm closing because of the signal, down 1.5% from theoretical entry. The signal was a FAILURE. GBP/USD, analysis. At 1.5014, still bullish on the psar but with a pps bear signal. The decline is sharp enough that I would close for a 1% loss. The signal was a FAILURE.

New this week, from the author of Liar's Poker, a look inside the Doomsday Machine.

• KFT, analysis. Trading down at $29.57. Next upside reversal at $30.10.
• XLE, analysis. At $57.18 with new bear signals.  I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor, rather than directional, and today it hit $56.76 and pulled back, so it's all good.

Psar bear signal:

• AAPL, analysis. New today. At $222.24. Next reversal at $220.25.
  
• AUD/NZD, analysis. At 1.2924, still rangebound. Next reversal at 1.2873.
• AUD/USD, analysis. New today. At 0.916. Next reversal at 0.9095.
  
• EUR/GBP, analysis. At 0.9017, a strong up move and the sto has moved into the neutral. Holding for another signal to confirm. Next downside reversal point at 0.8750. 
• EUR/USD, analysis. New today. At 1.3539. Next reversal at 1.3450.
  
• F, analysis. New today. At $13.63, having pulled back sharply from the low. Next lower reversal at $12.75.
• KBE, analysis. New today. At $25.45. Next lower reversal at $24.78.
  

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Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic