Tuesday, March 30, 2010

3/30 Watchlist

The market so far today has sat like a stagnant pond filled with frogs sunning themselves on rotting logs and lazy dragonflies . . .

Oh, to heck with it. In a market this boring, I lack the energy for even an overdrawn simile.

Very narrow trading ranges on the indicators, except for TLT. The Treasury long-bonds etf set a low on the three-month chart, and has risen, covering 0.7% low to high. This is a significant break a six-day decline.


TLT is a bellweather of trader's estimates for the economy. An expectation of lower interest rates means higher prices. Of course, in a recession, when credit has been loosened to such an extent, an expectation of lower rates suggests, to me at least, a worsening of the economy.

The Watchlist:

Stocks

Psar bull signal:
  • AMZN, analylsis. At $136.69, a move above range and then a pullback. Next reversal $142.58.
  • EEM, analysis. New today. At $42. Next reversal at $42.25.
  • CSCO, analysis. At $26.64, Next reversal at $27.72.
  • GNW, analysis. At $17.54. Next reversal at $18.19
  • * MGM, analysis. At $12.26. Next nearest upside at $12.67; downside $11.50. In my analysis I pegged this a direction-agnostic iron condor, with maximum profit between $12-$10, or maybe $13-$11, so at this point, lower is better.
  • SPY, analysis. At $117.46. Next reversal at $118.17.
  • * XLE, analysis. At $57.27, into the mid-range max profitability.   I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor.
  • XLF, analysis. At $15.94, pulled back a bit. Next upside reversal at $16.53; downside at $15.52.
  • XRT, analysis. At $41.58. Next highest reversal is $44.77.


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Psar bear signal:
  • F, analysis. At $13.44 with a break down tothe 20-day moving average. Next lower reversal at $12.75.
  • FNM, analysis. At $1.05. Next reversal $1.03, then 98¢.
  • JNJ, analysis. At $64.92. This is the third day for higher prices.Reversals are $64.53, and then $64.15. I pegged this in analysis as a $62-$65 iron condor. I'm not playing it for my own account because of the potential profit/loss ratio, which is 1:3.
  • MDZ, analysis. At $7.95. Next reversal at $7.79
(*, above, means I hold a stock or options position in the issue.)

Forex

Psar bull signal:
  • AUD/CAD, analysis. New today. At C$0.9356. Next reversal at C$0.9418.
  • AUD/USD, analysis (same as AUD/CAD). New today. At $0.9182. Next reversal at $0.9251
  • EUR/CAD, analysis. At C$1.3671, another pullback.Next upside reversal at C$1.4103; downside at C$1.3570.
  • EUR/CHF, analysis. At SFr. 1.4307, next reversal at SFr. 1.4623
In my holdings:
  • AOD, shares, a dividend play. At $8.98. Yesterday's new pps bull signal proved to be a ghost and has disappeared.
  • JNK, shares, a dividend play. At $39.79.
  • NLY, shares, a dividend play. At $17.10 after an ex-div gap and then a further decline. NLY is the gift that keeps on giving, but only if you're into pain.
  • MCO, an April covered call with a $29 strike, is trading at $30.37.
  • MGM, an iron condor with maximum profit expiration between $10 and $12. Trading at $12.26, so it's beyond the range of maximum profit at expiration. 
  • PALM, shares, a zombie position. At $3.76. Don't ask.
  • XLE, An April iron condor with maximum profit at expiration between $56 and $59. Trading at $57.27, in the middle of the profit range.

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Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic

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