Wednesday, March 31, 2010

4/1 Almanac

Econ: The Manufacturing index and weekly jobless claims.
On Thursday, April 1, there are 16 trading days left before April options expire, 51 the May and 79 the June.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $117.00, down 0.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.8% low to high in a net move up. The close was 0.05% above the open.


Today's extremes: Open $116.95, high $117.52, low  $116.61, close $117.


SPY stayed within today's DeMark pivot points. The next DeMark pivots are $116.81/$117.72.

In total, 3.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, up 1% from the prior day.


Mediawatch:  You've got to have a lot of sympathy for the journalists who write the stock market stories. Each day, they must have a lede that somehow takes a credible stab at explaining why the market did what it did during the day.

Or in the case of today, since the market did nothing, why it did what it didn't do.

It's a tough gig.

Stephen Bernard and Tim Paradis at AP saw disappointment on Wednesday in the jobs report released before the market open on Tuesday. Those Wall Street traders must be an awfully slow bunch. "Say, wasn't there a jobs report yesterday morning sometime?" "I think there was." "Well, we'd better sell."

Ellis Mnyandu at Reuters went through a detailed recounting of a legal ruling against Chevron providing a floor for the Dow but Wall Street was really looking at the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Oh, and the Tuesday jobs report was also stirred into the mix. Let's just toss up against the wall and see what sticks. Can't go wrong there.


A veteran of the markets, writing with the serious trader in mind, details a proven approach to analyzing market behavior, identifying profitable trade setups, and executing and managing trades–from entry to exit.

Econ reports:

The automakers will release their sales numbers during the day. It's not only important for their share prices, but also an indicator of how willing consumers are to buy big-ticket items.


The weekly jobless claims report will be out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index will be released at 10 a.m. It's based on a survey of purchasing manages at manufacturing companies and gives insight into how they see things going as they plan their production.

After that, a bunch of small-fry: Construction spending at 10 a.m., natural gas inventories at 10:30 a.m., the Federal Reserve balance sheet and the money supply at 4:30 p.m. (Yes, no one looks at the money supply anymore. But I'm nostalgic for the Paul Volcker days.)

My rules as the calendar transitions from April options to May options allow trades in unhedged call and put option purchases that expire in June or later. No option spreads or anything fancy.

My portfolio consists of . . .

April expiry:
  • MCO, covered call, -c29
  • MGM, iron condor, p9/-p10/-c12/c13 
  • XLE, iron condor, p55/-p56/-c59/c60 
Dividend shares: AOD, JNK, NLY
 
Zombie shares: PALM.

Good trading!

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