3/31 Morningline

U.S. Treasury 20- and 30-year bonds (TLT) gapped up by 0.4% at the open, suggesting that traders don't expect the Fed to tighten credit any time soon. A rise in long-bond prices means an expectation of lower yields.

Blue chip stocks (SPY) were trading at the lower end of yesterday's range. Crude oil (USO) also gapped higher and showed a new psar bull signal. Gold (GLD) also gapped higher.

Lower interest rates generally have a depressing effect on the value of a currency, offset by the risk of inflation. Inflation remains low, and were the Fed to raise interest rates, that would mean the U.S. dollar would gain in value. But the jobs report suggests continuation of a low-yield low-inflation period, so of course oil rose to account for dollar's low value. TLT has risen 0.3% low to high so far today. Other indicators were trading so far in very narrow ranges.

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	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY $117.70
TLT $89.37

At 9:50 a.m. Eastern

Before the markets opened, a private company report on employment showed a loss of jobs in February; economists and forecast an increase. The report took on added significance because of the Good Friday holiday this week.

The U.S. government will release its more detailed employment report on Friday, but with the stock market closed for the Christian holiday, traders' ability to respond to any surprises will be somewhat limited.  Bonds and Forex will trade on Friday, but with the stock markets closed, liquidity will be less in all U.S. markets.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
VIX 17.90
JNK $39.65
GLD $109.23
USO $40.38
EEM $41.95
EUR/USD $1.3508
USD/JPY ¥92.90

At 10:00 a.m. Eastern

Among my holdings, MCO at $30.13 is showing a psar bear signal. My position is an April covered call with a strike price of $29, and I make more money of the option expires with the stock trading below that price.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
AOD $9.04
JNK $39.65
MCO $30.13
MGM $12.02
NLY $17.15
PALM $3.76
XLE $57.46

At 10:10 a.m. Eastern

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic   

About the glance:  The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: green for above 30-up, red for 20-down, yellow for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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