For the news inclined, it might be, "Do I care that GDP was was revised downward, suggesting a less robust economy? Or consumer confidence? Or weekly jobless claims? What are the rumors?"
For the fundamentalist, it's likely to be, "What's the forward earnings projection? What are the analysts saying? What's the trend in sales and earnings, and can it be sustained?"
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY $117.07 | ||||||||
| TLT $88.72 |
For technical traders like me, it's much simpler. There are two questions I ask: "Where's the floor?", and "Where's the ceiling?" On the foundation those questions the market day is built.
Of course, since newsers, fundamentalists and technicians all exist together in a happy anarchy, the markets move for all the reasons traders care about.
GDP, released before the open, was in fact revised downward, an announcement followed by little immediate impact on the blue chip stocks (SPY) and with a slight rise in Treasury long bonds (TLT). The next econ announcement, at 9:55 a.m. Eastern, was consumer sentiment, which was unchanged. That caused a 13¢ run-up in the price of SPY in a burst of euphoria that lasted less than a minute before the price ran down again and then took off to the upside. TLT was down at the open and then rose 27¢s;, taking the consumer sentiment report in stride. SPY is trading mainly within the range of the past seven trading days. TLT, having paused in its three-day decline, was in the lower half of yesterday's range. The rest of my indicators are also home in the range. | What would it be like to open your accounts and never have any ugly surprises. Financial strategist Pamela Yellen tells how to get your money on the good news track. |
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNK $39.70 | ||||||||
| GLD $107.16 | ||||||||
| USO $39.02 | ||||||||
| EEM $41.22 | ||||||||
| EUR/USD $1.3323 | ||||||||
| USD/JPY ¥92.50 |
FNM, which I shall be tracking in both the Morningline and the Watchlist, is trading narrowly at lower end of yestrday's range. The signals are mainly on the bear side as FNM runs up to earnings after the market close on May 6.
With an adx of 18, FNM is prone to whipsaws. The stock, which is under federal control and restructuring, has dopped from $70 to about a buck since 2007.
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FNM $1.08 |
My holdings, with the exception of the dividend play NLY, are rangebound.
NLY, at $17.59, is falling for the second day straight and has traversed 1.4% high to low so far today. The stock was downgraded by analysts for Sterne Agree, who cited the company's 10¢ dividend cut "and its implication."
Putting on my fundamentalist hat for a moment, the dividend history of NLY shows the company has always adjusted its dividend to conform to results, an admirable quality in a company. It's the companies who maintain their dividend no matter how bad their results or how low their stock falls who are flirting with disaster.
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOD $8.94 | ||||||||
| JNK $39.68 | ||||||||
| MCO $30.47 | ||||||||
| MGM $12.59 | ||||||||
| NLY $17.60 | ||||||||
| PALM $3.93 | ||||||||
| XLE $56.29 |
My portfolio are . . .
April expiry:
Dividend shares: AOD, JNK, NLY
Zombie shares: PALM.
About the indicators: SPY tracks the S&P 500, TLT: 20- and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, JNK: High-yield corporate debt, GLD: gold, USO, oil, EEM: emerging markets, EUR/USD: how many dollars to buy a euro, USD/JPY: how many yen to buy a dollar.
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
- trend: green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
- adx: green for above 30-up, red for 20-down, yellow for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
- psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
- sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
New to private trading? Here's a look at How to Become a Private Trader.
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