3/31 Watchlist

Blue-chip stocks  (SPY) are trading in-range.
Neither Treasury long bond (TLT), nor oil (USO) nor gold (GLD) has done much since the morning's gap up.

High-yield corporate debt (JNK) is showing a psar bear signal while trading downa bit from yesterday's range, but very narrowly. With an adx of 17, JNK is by the book prone to whipsaws.

In forex, USD/JPY is trading higher; EUR/USD within range.


The Watchlist:


Stocks

Psar bull signal:

AMZN, analylsis. At $136.70.Next reversal $142.58. EEM, analysis. At $42.19. Next reversal at $42.25. CSCO, analysis. At $26.27, a drop below range. Next upside reversal at $27.72; downside at $23.87 (no help there!). GNW, analysis. At $18.44, a move up today covering 8.4%. Next reversal at $21.10. Earnings are on May 6, so I'm nervous about news surprises. * MGM, analysis. At $12.13. Next nearest upside at $12.67; downside $11.50. In my analysis I pegged this a direction-agnostic iron condor, with maximum profit between $12-$10, or maybe $13-$11, so at this point, lower is better. SPY, analysis. At $117.33. Next reversal at $118.17. USO, analysis. New today. At $40.52. Next reversal at $41.19. * XLE, analysis. At $57.73, in a break above range and a new pps bull signal.  I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor. XLF, analysis. At $15.97. Next upside reversal at $16.53; downside at $15.52. XRT, analysis. At $41.49. Next highest reversal is $44.77.

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Psar bear signal:

• BBY, analysis. New today. At $42.49. Next reversal at $40.54.
• DIA, analysis. New today. At $108.76. Next reversal $106.92.
  
• F, analysis. At $12.61, gapped down on news of a warrant auction. Next reversal at $11.40. The problem is, it was a gap on news. What if traders reassess on Thursday and bid the price back up? Hmmmm, what to do?
• FNM, analysis. At $1.05. Next reversal $1.03, then 98¢.
  
• JNJ, analysis. At $65.16. I pegged this in analysis as a $62-$65 iron condor. I'm not playing it for my own account because of the potential profit/loss ratio, which is 1:3.
• MDZ, analysis. At $8.12. A higher open and then a volatile net down day. Next downside reversal at $7.79; upside at $8.65.
  

(*, above, means I hold a stock or options position in the issue.)

Forex

Psar bull signal:

• AUD/CAD, analysis. At C$0.9308. Next upside reversal at C$0.9418; downside at C$0.9263.
  
• AUD/USD, analysis (same as AUD/CAD). At $0.9165. Next reversal at $0.9251
• EUR/CAD, analysis. At C$1.3720. Next upside reversal at C$1.4103; downside at C$1.3570.
• EUR/CHF, analysis. At SFr. 1.4237, next reversal at SFr. 1.4623. Psar switched to bear, so I'm declaring the signal a FAILURE with a 0.6% decline.

Psar bear signal:

• GBP/CHF, analysis. At SFr. 1.5999. Next reversal at SFr. 1.5792
  
• USD/CHF, analysis (same as GBP/CHF). At SFr. 1.0538. Next reversal at SFr. 1.0367

In my holdings:

• AOD, shares, a dividend play. At $9.06. The pps bull signal is back.
• JNK, shares, a dividend play. At $39.68. Psar bear signal.
  
• NLY, shares, a dividend play. At $17.21.
• MCO, an April covered call with a $29 strike, is trading at $29.88.
• MGM, an iron condor with maximum profit expiration between $10 and $12. Trading at $12.01.
• PALM, shares, a zombie position. At $3.76.
• XLE, An April iron condor with maximum profit at expiration between $56 and $59. Trading at $57.63.

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Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic