DIA bear signal

The exchange-traded fund that tracks that Dow Jones Industrial Average, DIA, is showing a psar bear signal today.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
DIA $108.92

The adx is at 30, reflecting the run-up from $98.36 on Feb. 5 to $109.53 on March 25. The current signal is counter-trend and therefore, suspect.

The macd and sto are showing bear signs; the pps remains in bull mode.

What to make of this? The broader S&P 500 index, as reflected in the etf SPY, shows no bear signal at all. Neither does the NASDAQ etf QQQQ nor the Russell 2000 etf IWM.

Indeed, "suspect", I suspect, is too mild a term. The entire configuration screams, "Say wha'?!?!?!?"

You are here:

• Reversal
• $116.14, +6.6%
• $109.53, +0.6%
• Now $108.92
• Reversal
• $106.92, -1.8%
• $101.92, -6.4%
• $98.36, -9.7%

Before trusting this signal, I would want to at the least see the price close below the 20-day moving average, today at $107.27, and even better below the nearest reversal, at $106.92.

I'm not saying it's necessarily a false signal -- time will day -- but I'm saying it makes me nervous.

This signal will be followed in the daily Watchlist, which is posted beginning around 2:45 p.m. Eastern. Look for it at www.timbovee.com.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: green for above 30-up, red for 20-down, yellow for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.