Wednesday, March 17, 2010

3/17 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) reached a new high today in the rise that began on Feb. 5. Altogether, SPY has gained 12.3% from the low set on that date.

Long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) stood about where they were at the open, just a bit above Tuesday's trading range. Higher bond prices suggest that traders expect lower interest rates, as they gaze about whispering sotto voce, "I'm sure Ben won't blow. He'll get it right. Won't he?"

High-yield corporate bonds (JNK) are showing a pps bull signal. The psar has been in bull mode since Feb. 22, and the macd from the day before. However, the macd is falling back toward the zero-line, a caution sign.



Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse, adx - Average Directional Index, pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic




Oil (USO) is showing both pps and psar bull signals, the fruit of a two- and three-day whipsaw, respectively. With the adx at 19 and the sto having moved into overbought territory, I'm not willing to take these signals too seriously, despite the gap up at the open.

The watchlist:

Psar bull signal:
  • ADBE, analysis. New today. At $35.54, has pulled back below breakout, which does not bode well for the success of this signal.
  • *AOD, analysis. At $9.29, it has pushed through a reversal level a reversal level. This puts in a massive reversal area that has been touched many timessince July 2009. Next reversal area $10.58. This is primarily a monthly dividend play.
  • GBP/CHF, analysis. New today. At S₣1.6134, next reversal point at S₣1.6291.
  • GBP/USD, analysis. Trading at £1.5320. Next reversal point at £1.5520.
  • GE. Pulled back a bit after Tuesday's breakout. I'm closing out at $18.11, up 11.3% from the theoretical entry.  This signal was a TERRIFIC SUCCESS. (bravo bravo champagne all around.)


New this week, from the author of Liar's Poker, a look inside the Doomsday Machine.
  • GME, analysis. Broke out and is trading at $19.65. Next reversal level at $20.90.
  • INTC, analysis 1 2. Broke out on Tuesday and continued to rise today, setting a high of $22.35, just below the next nearest reversal point at $22.40.
  • KFT, analysis. Trading at $29.67. Next reversal at $30.10.
  • *WFC, analysis. At $30.48, and touched $30.67, 4¢ above the reversal level, before pulling back.
  • XLE, analysis. New today. At $59.13, no breakout. I pegged this in the analys as a $54-$60 iron condor, rather than directional.
Psar bear signal:
  • AUD/NZD, analysis. At A$1.2912, slightly below the theoretical entry pont. Next reversal at A$1.2873.
  • EUR/GBP, analysis. New today. At £0.897, next reversal point at £0.8750. a ways to slide on the slipperly slope.
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Topics:
Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend fund, Taiwan, gold, Intel semiconductors bum-bum-bum-buh, Kraft Foods, Sandridge Energy natural gas, Wells Fargo bank financial, Forex, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, U.K.

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