3/26 Watchlist

It has proven, in the main, to be a day for trading in the established range.

The Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) rose 0.7% low to high before pulling back but stayed within Thursday's bounds.

The one breakout was gold (GLD), which traversed 1.5% low to high, breaking out of a two-day range to the level where it stood last Tuesday.

The Watchlist:

Stocks

Psar bull signal:

AMZN, analylsis. At $134.92. Next reversal $142.58. CSCO, analysis. At $26.54, Next reversal at $27.72. GNW, analysis. At $17.57. Next reversal at $18.19 * MGM, analysis. At $12.48. Next nearest upside at $12.67; downside $11.50. In my analysis I pegged this a direction-agnostic iron condor, with maximum profit between $12-$10, or maybe $13-$11, so at this point, lower is better. SPY, analysis. At $116.69, another pullback. Next reversal at $117.51. Above that,  $121.91. * XLE, analysis. At $56.03, at the lower bound of max profitability.   I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor. A further decline and it's off the island for XLE. XLF, analysis. At $16.07. Next reversal at $16.53 XRT, analysis. At $41.57. Next highest reversal is $44.77.

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Psar bear signal:

• F, analysis. At $13.87. Next lower reversal at $12.75. Next higher at $14.23 and $14.54. Drifting downward but no decisive breakdown.
• FNM, analysis. New today. At $1.06. Next reversal $1.03, then 98¢.
  
• JNJ, analysis. New today. At $64.40, has broken through nearest downside resistance at $64.53. Next lowest at $64.15. I pegged this in analysis as a $62-$65 iron condor. I won't be playing it for my own account because of the potential profit/loss ratio, which is 1:3. That's because JNJ has a $5 spread between option strike prices. Those broad wings to condor increase potential loss.
  
• MDZ, analysis. New today. At $8.18, and still no news to explain today's sharp decline. Next reversal at $7.79
  

(*, above, means I hold a stock or options position in the issue.)

Forex

Psar bull signal:

• EUR/CAD, analysis. New today.  At C$1.3782. Next reversal at C$1.4103.

Psar bear signal:

• AUD/NZD, analysis. At NZ$1.2826. Next lower reversal at NZ$1.2873.
• AUD/USD, analysis. At US$0.9017. Next lower reversal at 0.8978.
• EUR/USD, analysis. At US$1.3401 in a sharp rise on reversing technicals.I declare this signal a SUCCESS with a 0.8% rise from theoretical entry. (I could call it a "wash" as well, but let's think positive).
• GBP/USD, analysis. At US$1.4893, reversed back into no-breakout territory. Next reversal at US$1.4871. Any more rise and I kick it off the island.

In my holdings:

• AOD, shares, a dividend play. At $8.94.
• JNK, shares, a dividend play. At $39.67.
  
• NLY, shares, a dividend play. At $17.63, falling for the third straight day. I'll continue to hold it on the theory that the drop when it goes ex-div on March 30 will be pretty much covered by the decline from the dividend cut. It's a gamble.
• MCO, an April covered call with a $29 strike, is trading at $30.23.
• MGM, an iron condor with maximum profit expiration between $10 and $12. Trading at $12.44, so it's beyond the range of maximum profit at expiration. 
• PALM, shares, a zombie position. At $3.93, up a stunning 5.9% from yesterday's close. Pretty impressive, if you ignore my $12.63 basis. Please do ignore it.
• XLE, An April iron condor with maximum profit at expiration between $56 and $59. Trading at $56.01, it's at the bottom of the max-profit range. Much below $56 and it's out of my holdings.

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Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic