3/25 Watchlist

The S&P 500 exchange-traded fund -- SPY -- retreated below the high set on Tuesday, transforming a solid break-out into just another wannabe.

SPY is trading at about $117.20. The reversal level, $117.51, for much of the morning acted as a reversal level where prices bounced back up. That changed a little after 2 p.m. Eastern, and $117.51 became a ceiling under whose loving shelter SPY huddled ever lower.

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) took a walk on the downside, ignoring happy low-rates talk from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. At the lowest point, TLT overshot the reversal level of Feb. 18, hitting $88.37 before retreat back up.


The dollar was up against both the euro and the yen (EUR/USD, USD/JPY), and high-yield corporates bonds (JNK) had also broken above a 12-trading-day sideways trend.

The Watchlist, with a SUCCESS, a FAILURE and WASH:

Stocks

Psar bull signal:

AMZN, analylsis. New today. At $135.17. Next reversal $142.58. CSCO, analysis. At $26.55, made a run up to $26.85 before pulling back. Next reversal at $27.72. DIS, analysis. At $35.25, after hitting $35.50, near the third-highest reversal level. I'm declaring this signal to be a SUCCESS with a 3.6% rise from theoretical entry. GNW, analysis. At $17.18. Rose to $17.79, past the $17.35 reversal level, and then pulled back sharply, same pattern as yesterday. It will need a close watch. * MGM, analysis. At $12.19, it has pulled below a two-day sideways range. Next nearest upside at $12.67; downside $11.50. In my analysis I pegged this a direction-agnostic iron condor, with maximum profit between $12-$10, or maybe $13-$11, so at this point, low is good. SPY, analysis. At $117.15, a pullback after rising past the next reversal at $117.51. Above that,  $121.91. * XLE, analysis. At $56.38, halting at the level set on Monday.  I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor. XLF, analysis. At $16.13, a break from the range. Next reversal at $16.53 XRT, analysis. At $41.53, above the closest reversal level. Next highest reversal is $44.77.

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Psar bear signal:

• F, analysis. At $13.86. Next lower reversal at $12.75. Next higher at $14.23 and $14.54. I'll watch it as long as it's declining at the end of each. Otherwise, off the island!
• KBE, analysis. At $26.32, pierced the $26.13 upside reveersal level. I'm declaring this signal a FAILURE and voting it off the island for a 3.6% loss from theoretical entry

(*, above, means I hold a stock or options position in the issue.)

Forex

Psar bull signal: None.

Psar bear signal:

• AUD/NZD, analysis. At 1.2888. Next lower reversal at 1.2873, which it pierced today before retreating a bit. Next upper reversal at 1.3065.
• AUD/USD, analysis. At 0.9088, opened high and retreated to low for little net change from yesterday. Next lower reversal at 0.8978.
• EUR/GBP, analysis. At 0.8967, went high, then low, then retreated to near slightly above the open. The macd weakened and the sto is truning up. I'm declaring this position to be a WASH with a 0.1% loss from theoretical entry. Farewell, Europeans!
• EUR/USD, analysis. At 1.3302. Next reversal at 1.2980.  Any pullback to the upside, and I declare this signal a success.
• GBP/USD, analysis. At 1.4834, moved through a reversal level. Next reversal at 1.4782.

In my holdings:

• XLE, an April iron condor with maximum profit at expiration between $56 and $59. Trading at $56.54.
• AOD, shares, a dividend play. At $8.98.
• JNK, shares, a dividend play. At $29.72
  
• NLY, shares, a dividend play. At $17.84, having traversed 2% high to low. A bad sign, since it goes ex-div on March 30, with the consequent price dip.
• MCO, an April covered call with a $29 strike, is trading at $31.04 with bull signals all around.
• MGM, an iron condor with maximum profit expiration between $10 and $12. Trading at $12.32, so it's beyond the range of maximum profit at expiration, but getting closer to the sweet point.
• PALM, shares, a zombie past its prime, is staggering down the street at $3.80.

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Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic