3/24 Watchlist

SPY, tracking the S&P 500,  is trading narrowly at the midpoint of yesterday's range, with less than a dime's worth of difference between the opening price and the current price.

TLT, tracking 20- and 30-year Treasury bonds, having gapped down this morning, has bounced off of a reversal level set in mid-February.

The big winner of the day is the dollar: Up 2.1% low to high against the yen (USD/JPY). Up 1.4% against the euro (EUR/USD).

The media chit-chat credits fear of the Greek Eurozone credit crisis (once again, ad infinitum) for the dollar's strength. Which certainly goes nowhere to explain the greater rise against the yen.



I credit the U.S. government bond market. TLT is down, which means traders expect higher interest rates ahead, and higher interest rates makes the dollar more valuable. Quod erat demonstrandum.


So I say, Caveat media, at least when trying to explain market action.

The Watchlist.

I've split the Forex off into a separate section, recognizing that the Stocks Tribe and Forex Tribe don't necessarily have a large overlap.

Stocks

Psar bull signal:

CSCO, analysis. At $26.53. No breakout. DIS, analysis. At $34.22. Broke above range and then dropped back, so no breakout. GNW, analysis. At $17.09. Rose to $17.76, past the $17.35 reversal level, and then pulled back sharply. It will need a close watch. KFT, analysis. At $30.67, pulled back from the top of yesterday's breakout. So I'm declaring this signal a SUCCESS, with a 5.4% rise, and removing it from the Watchlist. * MGM, analysis. At $12.58, made another run up toward the top of the trading range and pulled back. Next nearest upside at $12.67; downside $11.50. In my analysis I pegged this a direction-agnostic iron condor, with maximum profit between $12-$10, or maybe $13-$11. SPY, analysis. New today. At $116.84. Next reversal at $117.51 and then $121.91. * XLE, analysis. At $57.04.  I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor. XLF, analysis. New today. At $15.92, no breakout. XRT, analysis. At $41.15, XRT has moved below breakout territory. Next highest reversal is $41.44 and then $44.77.

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Psar bear signal:

• F, analysis. At $13.90, down a bit after Monday's big rise. Next lower reversal at $12.75. Next higher at $14.23 and $14.54. I'll watch it as long as it's declining at the end of each. Otherwise, off the island!
• KBE, analysis. At $26.14, a penny above the next higher reversal level of $26.13. Next lower reversal at $24.78.

(*, above, means I hold a stock or options position in the issue.)

Forex

Psar bull signal: None.

Psar bear signal:

• AUD/NZD, analysis. At 1.2922. Next lower reversal at 1.2873. Next upper reversal at 1.3065.
• AUD/USD, analysis. At 0.9086, a breakdown below the 0.9095 reversal. Next reversal at 0.8978.
• EUR/GBP, analysis. At 0.8958, after testing the 0.8910 level and then pulling back. Next downside reversal point at 0.8750. 
• EUR/USD, analysis. At 1.3336. Cut through downside reversal. Next reversal at 1.2980.  Any pullback to the upside, and I declare this signal a success.
• GBP/USD, analysis. New today. At 1.4886. Next reversal at 1.4871.

In my holdings:

• XLE, an April iron condor with maximum profit at expiration between $56 and $59. Trading at $56.93.
• NLY, shares, a dividend play. At $18.10.
• MCO, an April covered call with a $29 strike, is trading at $30.31 with bull signals all around.
• MGM, an iron condor with maximum profit expiration between $10 and $12. Trading at $12.57, so it's beyond the range of maximum profit at expiration.
• PALM, shares, a zombie past its prime, is staggering down the street at $4.02.

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Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic

Vale, amicus!