Monday, March 22, 2010

3/22 Watchlist

The exchange traded fund that tracks oil, USO, is rising sharply today after a morning fall. Altogether USO has traversed 3.3%, low to high, so far today.

All other indicators, except for gold (GLD) were trading within Friday's range. GLD was down.

Media reports (Dow Jones) credited the USO rise to investors moving money from less risky to more risky vehicles because stocks are up.


I suppose it would be bad taste to note that stocks have been rising since early February in the near term, and for a year in the long term. I guess what this shows is that trading in the oil pits must be v-e-e-r-r-r-y s-l-o-o-o-o-w kind of work. Or that oil traders are simply slow to catch on. Or that Dow Jones commodities writers sometimes have an attack of the sillies.

The watchlist.  Note how the bull positions are disappearing. Although the bear ones are growing, it's mainly the currencies. It's not really a signal, but to me a suggests a broad change in the character of the market.

Psar bull signal:

  • KFT, analysis. At $29.81. Next upside reversal at $30.10.
  • XLE, analysis. At $57.29.  I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor.


What would it be like to open your accounts and never have any ugly surprises. Financial strategist Pamela Yellen tells how to get your money on the good news track.
Psar bear signal:
  • AAPL, analysis. At $225.92. Moving up instead of down, although the price today opened below the next reversal, $220.25, before bouncing up.At this point it's back in the no-breakdown range.
  • AUD/NZD, analysis. At 1.2997, moved up rather than down. Next lower reversal at 1.2873. Next upper reversal at 1.3065.
  • AUD/USD, analysis. At 0.917. No breakdown. Next reversal at 0.9095.
  • EUR/GBP, analysis. At 0.8975. Next downside reversal point at 0.8750. 
  • EUR/USD, analysis. At 1.3546. Next reversal at 1.3450.
  • F, analysis. At $13.88 on a big rise. Next lower reversal at $12.75. Next higher at $14.23 and $14.54.
  • KBE, analysis. At $25.63. Next lower reversal at $24.78.
  • MGM, analysis. New today. At $12.52, having bumped past the nearest upside reversal. Next nearest upside at $12.67; downside $11.50. In my analysis I pegged this a direction-agnostic iron condor, with maximum profit between $12-$10, or maybe $13-$11.
In my holdings:
  • MCO, an April covered call with a $29 strike, is trading at $30.05 with bull signals all around.
  • PALM, shares, a zombie past its prime, is staggering down the street at $4.02. I've lost more than two-third of my value on this stock. At this point, I'll hang on to see what happens. In the past decade, PALM has moved repeated from double digits to single and back again. I might get lucky!
New to Private Trader? Check out the Reader's Guide.


New to private trading? Here's a look at How to Become a Private Trader.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic

 



    No comments:

    Post a Comment