Thursday, April 1, 2010

4/1 Morningline

Blue-chip stocks (SPY) opened higher this morning, testing the high of of $118.17 set March 25. Two signals that had been weakening again moved into a more bullish configuration.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
SPY $118.07
TLT $88.82
At 9:50 a.m. Eastern

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) gave back all of Wednesday's 0.6% rise and were trading at the upper end of Tuesday's range.


SPY so far today has hit a high of $118.19 before pulling back a bit. The price continues to use that level a resistance. The low $118s is a major area of congestion set back in 2005. It's old, but even old reversal levels can have an impact.

Congestion from the 2008 decline begins at about the $120 level.

So, on the chart, SPY may continue to rise, but it has some hurdles to overcome as it does so.

The macd, which had fallen to slightly below the zero-line, began moving up again. Although it stood in bear territory, the direction was bullish.

The sto, which had declined from overbought into neutrality, again rose into overbought territory.

Gold (GLD) and oil (USO) have both gaped up, and GLD is showing a new psar bull signal.

High-yield corporate bonds (JNK) are down with a new psar signal that kicked in late yesterday.


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The EUR/USD currency pair was trading within range, and the USD/JPY pair was up, indicating a weakening of the yen.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
VIX 16.93
JNK $39.82
GLD $110.00
USO $41.05
EEM $42.99
EUR/USD $1.3509
USD/JPY ¥9e.88
At 10:13 a.m. Eastern

Among holdings, AOD is showing a new psar bull signal, a day after the pps signalled bull. NLY set a new higher high in the second day of a rise following a downward slide when the dividend was cut by a dime.

XLE, the energy sector exchange-traded fund, showed a psar bull signal on a gap up.

This being April Fools day, I'm tempted to say tha PALM has moved in a massively bullish direction and has recovered the 74% it lost in its recent slide. This aggressively fact-based market letter, however, can take no break from honesty: PALM is trading sideways at $3.86 and continues to skulk through my portfolio, like a vampire, sucking value from my brokerage account.

Note to self: Hang garlic over charting screen!
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
AOD $9.13
JNK $39.51
MCO $30.04
MGM $12.23
NLY $17.30
PALM $3.86
XLE $58.30
At 10:26 a.m. Eastern

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: green for above 30-up, red for 20-down, yellow for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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