3/10 Watchlist

The exchange traded fund SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, is trading at $115.14 at this moment (2:28 p.m. Eastern), exactly the level of the Jan. 14 high that ended, for the moment, a 10-month rise in the market.

The price pierced the $115.14 resistance level several times during the day, peaking at $115.28 at 11:03 a.m. Each time it drew back to and below resistance.

---

The Option Trader Handbook: Strategies and Trade Adjustments (Wiley Trading)

I'm reading this book, and it is so excellent.

---

At no point so far today that I can discern did $115.14 become a support level. And that's really the key to judging today's action, for $115.14 must be transformed from resistance to support for today's move to truly count as a higher high and resumption of the bull market that began in March 2009.

What SPY needed was some alchemy to change resistance lead into support gold.

3/9 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) pushed up to within 15 cents of the Jan. 14 high, close enough that if you squint your eyes, it counts as a 100 percent retracement of the decline from $115.14 down to $104.58 on Feb. 5.

A move above $115.14 creates a new high and confirms continuation of the uptrend that began in March 2009 at $67.10.

For SPY, all skies as sunny, all rainbows bright and all technical signals are bullish, at least the ones that I follow.

The long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), by contrast, continue to soak under a chilly drizzle of the sort found only in the Pacific Northwest in a March where the promise of spring-to-come remains unkept.

3/8 Watchlist

The markets are marking time today. There's little change in my indicators since this morning. I've added the telcom company AT&T to the Watchlist, as well as to my holdings, and kicked Texas Instruments off the island.

The watchlist.

3/5 Watchlist

A very late posting because of connectivity problems earlier today.

Blue chip stocks (SPY) traversed 1.1% low to high today after gapping up at the open. Today's high was 1.4% above yesterday's.

The move propelled SPY to within 0.8% of the $115.14 high that ended a 10-month run-up beginning at $67.10 in March 2009.

3/4 Watchlist

The indicators continue in the paths they entered at the open. Just another day in low-volatility paradise. (I, however, am a high volatility person. This little touch of Heaven, for my style of trading, reeks a bit like Hell.)

The watchlist.

3/3 Watchlist

Every time I look at the blue chips chart today, my brain just swings into a rendition of the itsy bitsy spider song. You know the one, "Itsy bitsy spider, climbed up the water spout".

Today's SPY candlestick looks like an itsy bitsy spider hanging by a silken thread from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line.

Of course, we all remember the next line of the song: "Down came the rain, and washed the spider out," no doubt at least to the 61.8% retracement level.

Who'd'a thought that Fibonacci retracements could be applied to spider analysis.

3/2 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) are hanging from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line like a spider hanging from a door frame. The open-to-now range is just a few cents.

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) have pushed up into yesterday's trading range, recovering nearly all of what they lost on this morning's downward gap.

Gold (GLD) has broken above the trading range set Feb. 16-22 into an area of congestion set in mid-January. Altogether, it has traversed 1.4% today low to high.

2/2 Almanac

Tuesday, Feb. 2, is 17 days before the February options expire, 45 days the March and 73 days the April.

Historically, it tends to be the day of the week with the third highest increase, the date of the month with the highest increase and the month with the ninth highest increase.

What's the short way to say that? The third uppest day of the week on the uppest date of the month in the ninth uppest month. If you can say that three times quickly . . .

1/29 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) for the fifth day are trading within a range, roughly 110.47 down to 107.91. More or less.

ESTRAGON: Charming spot. (He turns, advances to front, halts facing auditorium.) Inspiring prospects. (He turns to Vladimir.) Let's go.
VLADIMIR: We can't.
ESTRAGON: Why not?
VLADIMIR: We're waiting for Godot

"Godot" -- it is a little known fact -- is French for "volatility".

1/27 Watchlist

Blue chip stocks (SPY) barely blinked at a Federal Open Market Committee announcement that left low to non-existent interest rates in place while dishing out some modest happy talk about the economy's prospects.

SPY is trading down a bit from yesterday's range, Treasury long bonds (TLT) and gold (GLD) within the range, the dollar against the euro (EUR/USD) is worth a bit more, and oil (USO) is straddling the yesterday's range in a downward move.

In other words, its just another day in 2010's low-volatility paradise. (The VIX is trading down for the third straight day.)